GBP/USD spiked higher to 1.3206 last week but subsequent reversal indicates that a short term top was formed. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3206 at 1.2783. Decisive break there will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2522. On the upside, above 1.2961 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3433 are seen as a corrective pattern to the up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2099 could be the second leg. Overall, GBP/USD should target 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high) on break of 1.3433 at a later stage.
In the long term picture, price actions from 1.0351 (2022 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.4248 structural resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
