USD/CAD dropped to 1.2604 last week but quickly rebounded. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.2742 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.2852 first. Break there will resume whole rise from 1.2286 to retest 1.2894/2947 resistance zone. On the downside, however, firm break of 1.2604 will argue that rise from 1.2286 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen back to 1.2286 support.
In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains neutral for now. The pair drew support from 1.2061 cluster and rebounded. Yet, upside was limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022. On the upside, firm break of 1.3022 should affirm the case of medium term bullish reversal. However, break of 1.2286 will turn focus back to 1.2005 low again.
In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, firm break of 1.2061 support will argue that USD/CAD has already started a long term down trend. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.
