USD/CAD’s stayed in range between 1.3313/3566 last week and outlook is unchanged. Overall, the pair is seen as extending the triangle consolidation pattern from 1.3976. Above 1.3566 will resume the rebound from 1.3313 towards 1.3666 resistance and then 1.3860. However, firm break of 1.3313 support will invalidate this view and indicate that deeper correction is underway.
In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3327) holds, up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below the EMA and 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3233 will raise the chance of bearish reversal. Deeper should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2758 next.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern only, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3031) holds.