USD/CAD’s corrective pattern from 1.3538 extended last week with mild recovery. But momentum then stalled after hitting 1.3773. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.3773 will target 1.3797 and possibly above. On the downside, break of 1.3650 support will bring retest of 1.3538/55 support zone.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.
In the long term picture, as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3498) holds, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has already completed, with rise from 1.2005 to 1.4791 as the fifth wave. 1.4791 would then be seen as a long term top and deeper medium term down trend should then follow.
