USD/CAD’s strong rebound last week suggests that fall from 1.4247 has already completed at 1.3730 already. Nevertheless, momentum stalled after hitting 1.4013. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first, for some consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 1.3919 minor support holds. Above 1.4013 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4247 to 1.3730 at 1.4050. Firm break there till pave the way to retest 1.4247.
In the bigger picture, current rebound suggests that USD/CAD is still staying in medium term consolidation pattern from 1.3480. As long as 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 (2025 high) to 1.3480 at 1.4290 holds, an eventual break of 1.3480 is in favor. However, firm break of 1.4290 will dampen this view, and target 1.4791 high instead.
In the long term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in M MACD, fall from 1.4791 could be correcting whole up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Firm break of 1.3480 support and sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.3640) will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 55 M EMA will maintain medium term bullishness.
