USD/CAD’s fall from 1.4298 continued last week and met 38.2% retracement of 1.3730 to 1.4298 at 1.4081 already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week, sustained break there will target 61.8% retracement at 1.3792 next. On the upside, above 1.4080 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that corrective rebound from 1.3480 has completed at 1.4298 after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 (2025 high) to 1.3480 at 1.4290. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3927) will solidify this case. That would in turn indicate that fall from 1.4791 might be ready to resume. Retest of 1.3480 low should be seen next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.4298 holds.
In the long term picture, strong support from 55 M EMA (now at 1.3654) argues that up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.4791 is in favor at a later stage. However, firm break of 55 D EMA will argue that the five-wave up trend has already completed.
