Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2535; (P) 1.2598; (R1) 1.2630; More….
USD/CAD’s decline accelerates again and reaches as low as 1.2547 today so far. The break of 1.2598 support now argues that whole rebound from 1.2061 has completed at 1.2919 already. Near term outlook is bearish for 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.2919 at 1.2389 or possibly below. On the upside, break of 1.2697 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay mildly bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, we’re still favoring the case that USD/CAD has defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we’d favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. With that in mind, fall from 1.2919 is viewed as a correction. Hence, we’re not anticipating a break of 1.2061 low. In the long run, USD/CAD should have another medium term rise to take on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065.
