USD/CHF gyrated lower last week as fall from 0.9951 extended. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 0.9695 low first. Break will resume whole decline from 1.0237. On the upside, break of 0.9908 resistance will likely resume the rebound from 0.9695, through 0.9951, to 1.0014 resistance.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 0.9186 (2018 low) should have completed at 1.0237 already. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0237 at 0.9587 and below. For now, USD/CHF is seen as in long term range pattern between 0.9186 and 1.0342. Hence, we’d pay attention to bottoming signal below 0.9587. However, sustained break of 1.0014 will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.0237 high.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
