USD/CHF edged lower to 0.8998 last week but recovered since then. Upside is still limited by 0.9161 resistance and thus outlook stays bearish. Break of 0.8998 support will resume larger down trend to 100% projection of 1.0237 to 0.9181 from 0.9901 at 0.8845. However, sustained break of 0.9161 will confirm short term bottoming, and turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound, to 55 day EMA (now at 0.9232) and above.
In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low), which is still extending. Sustained trading below 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.9081 will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 0.8639. On the upside, break of 0.9376 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
