USD/CHF stayed in range trading last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 0.8818 support turned resistance will carry larger bullish implication, and target 0.9146 cluster resistance next. Nevertheless, break of 0.8863 support will retain bearishness and resume larger down trend through 0.8851 low.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0146 is seen as in progress as long as 0.8188 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.8317. However, sustained break of 0.8818 should indicate medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rise back to 0.9146 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.8551 at 0.9160), even as a correction.
In the long term picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high) has completed. With 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359 intact, outlook is neutral at best. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.8317 will bring retest of 0.7065 low.
