USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF recovered ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.8551 to 0.9243 at 0.8979 last week. But upside was capped by 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9075). Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 0.9086 will indicate that pull back from 0.9243 has completed, and turn bias to the upside for retesting this high. However, sustained break of 0.8979 will argue that deeper fall is under way to 61.8% retracement at 0.8815.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.8976) holds rise from 0.8551 is viewed as reversing whole down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). On resumption, further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.8551 at 0.9537 and above. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will revive medium term bearishness, for retesting 0.8551 low at a later stage.

In the long term picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high) has completed. With 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359 intact, outlook is neutral at best.

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