No change in USD/CHF’s outlook as range trading continued last week. Initial bias remains neutral and further rise is in favor. Break of 0.8333 will resume the rebound from 0.8038 to 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.8038 at 0.8482. But strong resistance should be seen there to limit upside. On the downside, firm break of 0.8184 will bring retest of 0.8038.
In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8765) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the down trend. But in either case, sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317 will pave the way back to 0.7065.
