Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.25; (P) 110.98; (R1) 111.42; More…

USD/JPY breaches 110.35 to 110.30 but quickly recovered. It’s still holding on to 110.35 support and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, decisive break there will confirm that whole rebound from 104.69 has completed at 112.13. In that case, deeper fall should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28 next. On the upside, break of 111.15 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 112.13 high instead.

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In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Decisive break of 114.54 resistance will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds. However, firm break of 110.35 will mix up the medium term outlook again and turn focus back to 104.69 low.


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