Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.78; (P) 107.29; (R1) 107.61; More…
USD/JPY recovers mildly today but further decline should be seen with 107.79 minor resistance intact. As noted before, rebound from 104.45 should have completed at 108.47 already. Break of 106.68 will confirm this case and target retest of 104.45 low. On the upside, break of 107.79 will turn focus back to 108.47 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress and the pair is staying well inside long term falling channel. Firm break of 104.69 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. However, firm break of 109.31 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and bring stronger rise to 112.40 resistance for confirmation.
