USD/JPY’s rise form 102.58 accelerated to as high as 108.68 last week. There is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for long term channel resistance at 110.02 next. On the downside, below 107.81 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But further rally is expected as long as 106.21 resistance turned support holds.
In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend form 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.
In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.
