USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.91; (P) 149.85; (R1) 150.49; More…

USD/JPY’s fall from 151.89 extends to as low as 148.00 so far, and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Intraday bias stays on the downside for medium term channel support at 145.80 next. On the upside, break of 149.97 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the decline. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 (2023 low) is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Decisive break of 145.06 resistance turned support will confirm that this second leg has completed, after rejection by 151.93. Deeper fall would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. Nevertheless strong bounce from 145.06 will retain medium term bullishness for another test on 151.93 at a later stage.

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