USD/JPY’s price action from 139.87 could be a correction to fall from 158.86, or reversing whole decline. In either case, further rally is in favor as long as 142.79 support holds. Initial bias stays on the upside this week, and break of 146.27 will target 148.64 resistance next. On the downside, below 145.11 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.
In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 137.72) and even below.
