USD/JPY rebounded stronger after initial dip to 145.47 last week. The development argues that rise from 139.87 might still be in progress. But as upside is capped below 149.12 resistance, initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 149.12 will bring stronger rally to retest 150.90 high. However, break of 145.47 will resume the fall from 150.90 instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. But then, firm break of 161.94 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
