USD/JPY’s rally from 139.87 resumed by breaking through 153.26 resistance last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week fir 100% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 156.05. Firm break there will target 158.86 resistance next. On the downside, below 153.24 resistance turned support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 151.52 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 145.47 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. But then, firm break of 161.94 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
