USD/JPY rebounded after initial fall to 155.22, but failed to break through 38.2% retracement of 163.97 to 155.22 at 158.56 and reversed. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for retesting 155.22 low. Strong support is still expected from 155.01 cluster support to rebound. Overall, though, near term risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 159.32) holds.
In the bigger picture, as long as 155.01 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 at 154.76) holds, the larger up trend is still expected to continue through 163.97 after current correction completes. However, firm break of 155.01 will raise the chance that USD/JPY is already in a larger scale correction, and open up deeper fall back to 139.87 (2025 low) in the medium term.
In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. Long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.
 holds.){kind=link}