USD/JPY’s strong rebound to 110.47 last week indicates short term bottoming at 108.27. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 111.47 resistance first. Sustained break there will also have 55 day EMA (now at 111.39) firmly taken out. In such case, further rise would be seen back to 113.38/114.73 resistance zone. On the downside, however, below 109.22 minor support will turn focus back to 108.27 instead.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).
In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.
 firmly taken out. In such case, further rise would be seen back to 113.38/114.73 resistance zone. On the downside, however, below 109.22 minor support will turn focus back to 108.27 instead. ){kind=link}