Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.69; (P) 108.98; (R1) 109.32; More…
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. The pull back from 110.02 short term top halted after drawing support from near term channel. But break of 110.02 is needed to confirm resumption of rise from 104.62. Otherwise, more consolidation could be seen. And below 108.64 will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 110.02 at 107.95. In that case, we’d expect strong support fro 107.95 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 110.02 will resume the rise from 104.62 to t 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next.
In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Rise from 104.62 is possibly resuming the up trend from 98.97 (2016 low). This will be the preferred case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 107.95) holds. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will confirm our view and target 118.65 and above. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 104.62 low instead.
