USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.10; (P) 108.78; (R1) 109.46; More…

The break of 108.82 key cluster support now argues that rise from 104.62 has completed at 111.39. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20. Break will resume larger decline from 118.65 for a new low below 104.62. On the upside, break of 109.82 is needed to confirm completion of the fall from 111.39. Otherwise, near term outlook will be mildly bearish even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY remains bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). The development. Current deeper than expected fall from 111.39 argues that fall from 118.65 is not finished. Break of 104.62 low would target 98.97 or even below. Though, break of 111.39 will revive the case that fall from 118.65 has completed and turn focus to 114.73 for confirmation.

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