Trade Idea: GBP/JPY – Target met and look to sell higher

GBP/JPY – 141.65

Recent wave: Medium term low formed at 120.50 and (A)-(B)-(C) major correction has commenced with (A) leg ended at 148.45, hence wave (B) is unfolding for retreat to 131.00-10.

Trend: Near term up

Original strategy:

Sold at 143.65, met target at 141.65

Position: – Short at 143.65
Target: – 141.65
Stop: –

New strategy :

Look to sell again higher

Position: –
Target:  –
Stop:-

Sterling met renewed selling interest at 143.10 yesterday and has fallen again in line with our bearish expectation, our short position entered at 143.65 met downside target at 141.65 (with 200 points profit) and a sustained breach below indicated previous support at 141.50 would extend the selloff from 148.10 top to 141.00 but loss of momentum should limit downside to 140.50-55 and price should stay above psychological support at 140.00, bring rebound later. 

As we have taken profit on our short position entered at 143.65, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside for now. Above 142.10-15 would bring recovery to 142.55-60 but said resistance at 143.10 should remain intact and bring another decline later. Only a break above 143.10 would suggest low is formed instead, risk a stronger rebound to 143.40-50 but resistance at 143.95-00 should remain intact.

Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.