AUD/USD – 0.7587
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10
Trend: Near term up
New strategy :
Sell at 0.7605, Target: 0.7450, Stop: 0.7665
Although aussie recovered after falling to 0.7543 late last week, reckon upside would be limited to 0.7640-45 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7741-0.7543) and bring another decline later, below said support at 0.7543 would extend the fall from 0.7741 top for retracement of recent upmove to 0.7512 support but oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below previous support at 0.7493 and price should stay above support at 0.7449, bring rebound later.
In view of this, we are looking to sell aussie on recovery as 0.7605-10 should limit upside. Only above 0.7665 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7741-0.7543) would abort and suggest the retreat from 0.7741 has ended, bring a stronger rebound to 0.7700 but price should falter well below said resistance at 0.7741, bring another decline.
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.