EUR/JPY – 129.45
Recent wave: A 5-waver is unfolding from 114.85 with wave iii and iv ended at 125.82 and 122.40 respectively, wave v has possibly ended at 131.40.
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy:
Sold at 129.50, stopped profit at 128.60
Position: – Short at 129.50
Target: –
Stop: – 128.60
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
Despite falling to 128.05 on Friday, the subsequent stronger-than-expected rebound (our short position entered at 129.50 stopped profit at 128.60 with 90 points profit) suggests the fall from 131.40 top has formed a temporary low there, hence upside risk is seen for a retracement of this fall to 129.90-00, however, reckon upside would be limited to 130.40-45 and price should falter below 130.87 resistance and bring another decline later.
On the downside, whilst pullback to 129.00 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to 128.50-55 and price should stay well above said support at 128.05 and bring another rebound. Only below said last week’s low at 128.05 would signal the fall from 131.40 top is still in progress and revive bearishness for further decline towards previous support at 127.44.
Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.
Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i – 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii – 97.03, wave iv – 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).
