USD/CAD – 1.2637

Trend:  Down

New strategy             :

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Stand aside

Position: –

Target:  –


As the greenback has surged again and finally broke above resistance at 1.2599, confirming the rise from 1.2061 low has resumed and reviving our bullishness for this move from there (wave iii trough) to extend further gain towards previous resistance at 1.2663, then 1.2700 but price should falter well below another previous resistance at 1.2778. We are keeping our count that wave v as well as wave (C) ended at 1.3794 and impulsive wave (i ii, i ii) is now unfolding with minor wave iii ended at 1.2414, followed by wave iv correction ended at 1.2778, wave v has reached our indicated downside target at 1.2100 and may extend to 1.2000.

In view of this, we are looking to reinstate long on pullback as 1.2570-75 should limit downside and bring another rise. Below 1.2520 (previous minor resistance) would abort and suggest top is possibly formed, risk test of 1.2475-80, break there would confirm and then further fall to 1.2450 would follow. Only a break of support at 1.2433 would turn outlook bearish, bring retracement of recent rise to 1.2400, then towards 1.2350-55 but support at 1.2313 should remain intact.

To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.


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