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Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Stand aside

USD/CAD – 1.3330

Recent wave: Only wave v of c has ended at 0.9407 and wave C of major A-B-C correction is underway for headway to 1.4700

Trend:  Near term up

New strategy             :

Stand aside

Position: –

Target:  –


Although the greenback has recovered from 1.3276, this week’s selloff suggests top has been formed at 1.3535 earlier and upside should be limited to 1.3380-90 and price should falter below previous support at 1.3421 (now resistance), bring another decline later, below said support at 1.3276 would add credence to our bearishness and extend the fall from 1.3535 for retracement of recent upmove to 1.3235-40 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3056-1.3535) but reckon previous resistance at 1.3210 would hold due to near term oversold condition.

In view of this, would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Above previous support at 1.3421 (now resistance) would suggest low is formed, bring a stronger rebound to 1.3450 and possibly test of resistance at 1.3479, however, only break of 1.3495 resistance would indicate the pullback from 1.3535 has ended and bring retest of this level later.

To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.

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