JGB Yields Climb, BoJ Hike Bets Rise, and Yen Risks Triggering Carry Unwind
Japan remains the center of attention in an otherwise quiet Asian session, with traders focused on the relentless climb in JGB yields. The 10-year benchmark surged to a fresh 18-year high today and appears poised to challenge the psychological 2% handle soon, an escalation that is increasingly difficult for...
Muted Reaction to Strong US Claims; Japan’s Bond Markets Flash Caution
Global markets have steadied heading into US session, with equity futures pointing to a flat open after yesterday’s strong rally. Early optimism from Japan and Europe faded through the day, leaving investors cautious but not materially risk-off. The backdrop is one of consolidation rather than clear direction.
US jobless claims...
Dollar Stays Weak Despite Small Bounce; Hassett Concerns Add to Pressure
Dollar attempted a mild recovery in Asia today, but the uptick lacked conviction and failed to alter the broader picture of USD underperformance. The greenback remains the weakest major this week, with selling pressure intensifying after Wednesday’s sharp drop in ADP employment that reinforced concerns about labor-market deterioration.
Expectations for...
Dollar Extends Losses on Deepening Labor Weakness, Euro Leads Weekly Gains
Dollar selling intensified again in early US session after another weak ADP employment report, marking the fourth decline in private payrolls over the past six months. The series of negative prints is now being viewed as a clear sign of deterioration in the labor market, prompting markets to extend...
Markets Await US ADP and ISM Services as Dollar Drops Further
Risk sentiment was mixed in Asian trading today. The Nikkei outperformed thanks to a rebound in SoftBank and renewed enthusiasm for tech and AI names, but the index failed to break back above 50,000 psychological level—highlighting lingering hesitation among investors despite the intraday gains. Outside Japan, the tone was...
UK Political Noise Weighs Slightly on GBP, FX Board Shows No Clear Theme
Sterling weakened slightly today as markets digested last night’s abrupt resignation of OBR Chair Richard Hughes, who stepped down following the premature release of budget documents last week. Investors viewed the episode as destabilizing for an institution designed to promote fiscal transparency and market confidence.
There was also a delayed...
Markets Stabilize After Robust JGB Auction, Retroactive US Tariff Relief for Korea
Market sentiment steadied across Asia today, with most assets drifting in tight ranges after Monday’s volatility. The overnight selloff in the US was modest, and fears that Japan-led risk aversion would spill aggressively into global markets did not materialize. While pockets of unease lingered—particularly in the tech space following...
Dollar Slumps as Yen Surge Triggers Position Unwinds
Dollar fell broadly today, though the move lacked a clear single trigger. Fed expectations barely shifted, with December cut bets ticking up only marginally to 87%, not meaningfully different from last week. US yields were also steady to firmer, with 10-year Treasury yields recovering back above the 4% mark,...
BoJ Hike Back in Play After Ueda Comments; Yen Surge and 10Y JGB Yield Breakout
Risk aversion returned to Asia at the start of December, lifting Yen sharply across the board. The shift in sentiment coincided with a notable surge in Japanese government bond yields, with the 10-year jumping nearly 0.07 and breaking above 1.87%, its highest level in more than 15 years. .
A...
Quiet Markets, Technical Outage, and a Dollar Still Stuck at Weekly Lows
Markets were broadly quiet today as holiday conditions dominated trading, with liquidity thinning further after a major technical issue at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange brought several platforms to a halt. The CME said trading had come to a standstill due to a cooling problem at one of its data...
Japan Data Beats But Yen Lacks Traction; Dollar Heads for Worst Week Since Mid-Year
Japan’s data releases were surprisingly strong today, with both industrial output and retail sales showing impressive gains. Combined, they paint a picture of an economy that is slowly regaining momentum on both production and consumption fronts. Yet the Yen remains notably weak, failing to capitalize on the firmer-than-expected numbers.
One...
Dollar Stays Soft Into Thanksgiving Lull
Trading turned subdued as markets moved into the U.S. session, with activity expected to slow further as Thanksgiving approaches. Liquidity conditions were already thinning in early trade, and the muted tone across majors reflects a market unwilling to take fresh positions before the long weekend. Despite the quieter backdrop,...
Kiwi, Aussie Power Ahead While Dollar Sinks
New Zealand Dollar’s broad-based rally extended through today’s Asian session as a run of solid domestic data continued to bolster confidence in the country’s recovery. Strong retail sales in Q3 suggested the rebound is already underway, while the surge in business confidence and activity pointed to a more durable...
Sterling Rises as UK Autumn Budget Clears Key Stability Test
Sterling advanced broadly today as markets reacted positively to the highly anticipated Autumn Budget. Early jitters surfaced when the OBR mistakenly published its fiscal forecasts ahead of schedule, triggering brief volatility in both the Pound and 10-year gilt yields. But once the dust settled, sentiment stabilized and then improved...
Kiwi, Aussie Dominate; Sterling Awaits for High-Stakes Budget
Risk-on sentiment extended through Asian session, from intensifying bets on December Fed rate cut. The shift in sentiment sent US stocks higher overnight, and pushed 10-year yield briefly below 4% handle. Kiwi and Aussie are the biggest beneficiary of this backdrop, with both additionally supported by domestic developments.
Kiwi is...
Dollar Softens Further on Dovish Repricing; Bessent Signals Fed Chair Decision Near
Dollar weakened notably against Euro and Yen in early U.S. session, tracking another leg lower in Treasury yields as markets absorbed softer-than-expected September retail sales. While the report was backward-looking, it reinforced the direction of travel for consumption and added incremental weight to the view that demand is steadily...
Currencies Stay Calm Despite Risk-On Tone; Focus Turns to Delayed U.S. Data
Trading in the currency markets remained largely steady in Asian session, with major pairs and crosses stuck in unusually tight ranges. There was little conviction in either direction, and the mild risk-on tone that followed the strong U.S. close failed to generate follow-through in FX.
The December Fed cut narrative...
Dollar Soft as Fed Doves Lift Cut Odds to 75%; Yen Slumps Again
Dollar is trading on the back foot today as markets add to bets on a December Fed rate cut, extending the repricing that began late last week. The shift was triggered by New York Fed President John Williams, who surprised markets last Friday by saying he sees room for...
Yen Falters After Friday Rebound; UK Budget, RBNZ Cut, U.S. Data Catch-Up
Asian trading has been subdued with Japan on holiday. Yen’s sharp rebound at the end of last week has failed to extend, with the currency losing energy amid a lack of fresh catalysts. The pause reflects an uneasy balance. While some investors expect further corrective strength, broader policy expectations...
Fed Messaging Chaos Nudges Dollar Higher, Not Higher Enough
Global markets closed last week on an uncertain footing. While bears appeared to have an upper hand, the control was never firmly gripped. Conviction was relatively thin as traders were reluctant to commit decisively. The overall impression was of markets still searching for a coherent theme to latch onto....