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CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Long of Commodity Currencies Fell Across the Board

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended April 13, NET LENGTH of USD index futures gained +1 504 contracts to 5 953. Speculative long positions dropped -1 027 contracts while shorts fell -2 531 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Long Trimmed on All Majors

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended April 6, NET LENGTH of USD index futures dropped -1 277 contracts to 4 449. Speculative long positions declined -2 807 contracts while shorts fell -1 530 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Lower Euro Soared on Rising US Yields and Renewed Lockdowns

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 30, NET LENGTH of USD index futures added +343 contracts to 5 726. Speculative long positions gained +2 667 contracts while shorts added +2 324 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures slumped...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Length for Commodity Currencies Declined

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 23, NET LENGTH of USD index futures dropped -454 contracts to 5 383. Speculative long positions gained +1 271 contracts while shorts added +1 725 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures rose...

BOJ’s Yield Curve Control Helps Prevent JPY Appreciation, but Not Effective in Boosting Inflation

In its minor tweak on the yield curve control operation, the BOJ has widened the trading band of 10-year JGB yield by +/- 25 bps (+/- 20 bps previously). The central bank introduced YCC in September 2016, in addition to keeping the policy rate at -0.1% and the QE...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Risk Currencies Trimmed

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 16, USD drifted to NET LENGTH of 14 724 contracts to 5 837. Speculative long positions gained +2 816 contracts while shorts slumped -11 908 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures sank...

CFTC Commitments of Traders -Net Short of USD Index Futures Fell as Rising Yields Lent Support

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 9, NET SHORT of USD Index futures fell -1 216 contracts to 8 887. Speculative long positions gained +2 992 contracts while shorts were up 1 776 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risky Currencies Pulled Back on Profit-Taking

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended February 23, NET SHORT of USD Index futures dropped -436 contracts to 13 851. Speculative long positions added +1 750 contracts while shorts were up 1 314 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Net Short Gained Slightly as Risk Appetite Improved

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended February 16, NET SHORT of USD Index futures dropped -412 contracts to 14 287. Speculative long positions slipped -97 contracts while shorts were up +315 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures dropped -216...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – GBP Rallied for 5th Consecutive Week While Trading in USD Future Light

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended February 9, NET SHORT of USD Index futures dropped -955 contracts to 13 875. Trading in the futures was light with speculative long and short positions down  -41 contracts and -996 contracts, respectively. Concerning European currencies,...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Higher Euro Shrank Sharply

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended February 2, NET SHORT of USD Index futures added +111 contracts to 14 830. Speculative long positions gained +611 contracts, and short positions increased +722 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures sank -28...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – US Dollar Rebounded but Sustainability is in Doubt

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended January 26, NET SHORT of USD Index futures added +442 contracts to 14 719. Speculative long positions slipped -71 contracts, and short positions increased +371 contracts. Bets on both sides were limited as traders doubted how...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet on Higher Euro as ECB Shrugged Off its Strength

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended January 19 NET SHORT of USD Index futures +370 contracts to 14 277. Speculative long positions gained +1 492 contracts, and short positions increased +1 862 contracts. The greenback's correction proves to be short-lived. The ECB...

CAD Extended Rally as BOC Sounded Less Dovish

BOC’s January meeting came in less dovish than expected. While leaving the monetary policy measures unchanged, the central bank has upgraded the economic outlook for 2022. Meanwhile, policymakers hinted QE tapering if confidence over recovery improves. At the meeting, BOC kept the overnight rate at 0.25% and the QE...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Rebound in USD Prone to be Short-lived

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended January 12, NET SHORT of USD Index futures fell -1 045 contracts to 14 952. Speculative long positions dropped -941 contracts, and short positions decreased -1 986 contracts. USD rebounded as talks about Fed's balance sheet...

CAD to Gain Further On Risk Appetite and Higher Crude Oil Price, Upside Limited by BOC Actions

Similar to Australian dollar, Canadian dollar this year should continue to benefit from broad-based USD weakness, global recovery, and rebound in commodity, in particular crude oil, prices. However, with the US as its largest trading partner, BOC should track the Fed’s monetary policy closely, and avoid excessive appreciation of...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Started 2021 with More Selling

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended January 5, NET SHORT of USD Index futures added +395 contracts to 14 952. Speculative long positions climbed higher, by +279 contracts, and short positions increased +788 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...

Aussie to Gain Further from Global Reflation Theme, Limited Impact from China’s Boycott

The global reflation theme of 2021 should continue to support AUDUSD. With the cash rate at the effective lower bound, RBA also extended asset purchases worth of AUD100B until mid-2021. Yet, it appears that there is little the central bank can do to curb the currency strength. Risks from...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Index Finished 2020 in Net Short, Losing 6%

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 29, NET SHORT of USD Index futures slipped -318 contracts to 14 557. Speculative long positions gained +1 106 contracts and short positions added +788 contracts. USD Index dropped about -6% last year. Concerning European...

JPY to Continue Grind against USD on Policy Convergence, Reduced Capital Outflow and Current Account Surplus

Japanese yen gained +5% against US dollar last year. The strength was only modest, compared with about +9% gains of AUD, EUR and CHF. Notwithstanding the lackluster improvement in Japan’s inflation outlook and exhaustion of BOJ’s stimulus, we expect Japanese yen to extend its modest gain against the greenback...