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CFTC Commitments of Traders – JPY’s Net Short Trimmed Sharply on Safe Haven Demand

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 30, NET LENGTH of USD index futures added +104 contracts to 35 879. Bets on both sides fell further. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT of EUR futures gained +6 788 contracts to 23 240 while...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risk Currencies All Got Dumped

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 23, NET LENGTH of USD index futures added +867 contracts to 35 775. Bets on both sides dropped slightly. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT of EUR futures jumped 12 626 contracts to 18 452 while...

Market Priced in Faster Rate Hike after Powell’s Nomination for Second Term

Hawks were thrilled with Biden’s nomination of Jerome Powell for the second term, thinking that his chairmanship would lead to more rate hikes in the coming year, than that of Lael Brainard, initially viewed as the leading candidate of the Fed Chair in the next term. She is now...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – European Currencies Slumped as Austria Lockdown Raises Concern about Outlook

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 16, NET LENGTH of USD index futures dropped -540 contracts to 34 908. Bets on both sides climbed slightly higher. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT of EUR futures gained +7 599 contracts to 3 826...

Aussie Dropped as RBA Affirmed that 2022 Rate Hike is Unlikely

RBA Governor Philip Lowe downplayed the likelihood of a rate hike next year at a speech today. Besides reiterating that Australian inflation has been less severe than other economies, he noted that inflation is the the only factor leading to a rate hike. Aussie dropped after his comments. Lowe noted...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – British Pound Slumped as BOE Refrained from Hike Rate

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 2, NET LENGTH of USD index futures added +525 contracts to 34 982. Bets increased on longs but dropped on shorts. The greenback got supported as the Fed will formally start QE tapering in mid-November....

CFTC Commitments of Traders – GBP Futures Turned to Net Long as BOE Might Hike Rate Next Week

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 26, NET LENGTH of USD index futures dropped -1 477 contracts to 34 457. Bets decreased on both sides. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT of EUR futures slipped -851 contracts to 11 256. ECB President...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – RIsk Currencies Gained Ground on Improved Sentiment

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 19, NET LENGTH of USD index futures added +872 contracts to 35 934. Bets decreased on both sides. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT of EUR futures declined -6 291 contracts to 15 483. Speculative shorts...

Bets Increased for a Bigger RBNZ Hike in November. Yield Spread Widened to Above 200 bps with Japan

NZD remains firm. Hopes of a +50 bps rate hike in November have heightened after the strong inflation report. NZ-US yield spread widened to a level not seen since 2017. More remarkably, NZ-JP yield spread widened to over 200 bps. A more prominent policy divergence between the RBNZ and...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risk Currency Rebounded on Bargain-Hunting

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 12, NET LENGTH of USD index futures rose +3 306 contracts to 35 062. Bets increased modestly on both sides. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT of EUR futures dropped -3 936 contracts to 18 398....

CAD Supported by Energy Price Strength. Strong Job Market and Inflation Lifted Yields

Falling to the weakest level since August, USDCAD was the worst performer amongst majors (CAD best performer against USD). Loonie’s rebound was driven by energy prices and strong job data. Elevated inflation also has again heightened speculations about BOC’s rate hike. The major driver of loonie’s strength was energy price....

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Lower European Currencies Accelerated amidst Power and Supply Chain Crisis

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 5, NET LENGTH of USD index futures rose +5 565 contracts to 32 026. Bets were trimmed on both sides. Concerning European currencies, EUR futures drifted to NET SHORT  of 22 334. Speculative shorts rallied...

CFTC Commitments of Traders- Bets on Lower Euro Jumped amidst Energy Crisis

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 28, NET LENGTH of USD index futures gained +1 361 contracts to 26 461. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures slumped -11 223 contracts to just 872. Speculative shorts soared remarkably, by +16...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Supported by Tapering Hopes

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 21, NET LENGTH of USD index futures ADDED +827 contracts to 25 100. The Fed signaled that QE tapering would coon "soon" while half of the committee members projected that rate hike would come as...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Longs Increased USD, EUR and GBP Amidst Tapering Hopes

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 14, NET SHORT of USD index futures gained +2 808 contracts to 24 273. In light of hopes that the Fed would announce plans to taper QE at next week's meeting, traders increased speculative longs...

Aussie’s Weakness Exacerbated by Dovish RBA and Slump in Iron Ore Price

Concerns over inflation, slower economic growth and normalization of monetary stimulus have hurt market sentiment, pressuring commodity currencies over the past week. Among G10 commodity currencies, Australian dollar performed the worst as it was additionally hammered by a dovish RBA and the selloff of iron ore price. Dovish RBA under...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on DXY Index Futures and EUR Futures Declined in Both Sides

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 7, NET SHORT of USD index futures added +775 contracts to 21 465. Trades continued to drop on both sides with speculative long positions down -2 803 contracts while speculative shorts down -3 578. Concerning...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risk Currencies to Gain Ground after Weaker-than-Expected Nonfarm Payrolls

In the last week of August, bets on USD index futures fell on both sides as traders pondered Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech and awaited the August employment report. As speculations of Fed's tapering tamed after both events, it is likely that the euro, as well as commodity...

Kiwi Gains Support from Hawkish RBNZ

New Zealand dollar was the only major currency rose against the US dollar in August, despite speculations over Fed’s tapering and renewed lockdown. We believe policymakers’ proactive reassurance of an October rate hike would likely make the RBNZ the first major central bank to begin rate hike after the...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risk Currencies Got Dumped. Reversal Likely in Coming Week

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 24, NET SHORT of USD index futures gained +1 151 contracts to 20 362. Speculative long positions added +1 151 with no change in shorts. European currencies got dumped in the reporting weeks on resurgence...