Wed, Mar 27, 2019 @ 02:31 GMT
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 19, NET LENGTH in USD Index fell as speculative long positions dropped while shorts gained. NET LENGTH for USD index declined -9 139 contracts, to...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 12, NET LENGTH in USD Index gained as increase in longs outweighed that of shorts. With the exception of NZD, all major currencies stayed in...
The UK parliament again defeated, by 149 votes, the Withdrawal Agreement that PM Theresa May secured from the EU parliament. Despite the changes, attorney general Geoffrey Cox suggested the UK still would risk struck in the Irish backstop indefinitely....
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 5, NET LENGTH in USD Index gained although bets decreased on both sides. With the exception of NZD, all major currencies stayed in NET SHORT...
Indeed, there is not much update after the parliament voted down the original Brexit deal (Withdrawal Agreement) proposed by PM Theresa May back in January. Yet, things evolving since then appear to have diminished, or delayed, the risk of...
We refrain from overtly optimistic over US-China trade negotiations. Following US officials’ Beijing trip which included a meeting with China’s Xi Jinping on Friday, both countries released their own statements. Yet, the tones of which suggested that discrepancies remain....
BOJ’s asset purchase activities have again caught market attention. Talks of tapering heightened last week as the central bank offered to buy 180B yen of 10- to 25-year JGBS. Concerns over a less accommodative monetary environment eased as the...
The UK Parliament voted on the amendments of the PM Theresa May’s Brexit deal, which they have rejected two weeks ago. Among the seven amendments selected by John Bercow, Speaker of the House of Commons, for debate and vote,...
The UK Parliament rejected the Brexit deal (Withdrawal Agreement) proposed by PM Theresa May at 432 to 202 votes. The 230- vote margin marks the biggest defeat in the country’s political history. The government now has three days to...
GDP growth should have moderated in 4Q18 and would remain lukewarm 1H19. Although the Italian government eventually backed down in the budget plan, political risks in the region have not yet abated. European Parliament election scheduled in mid-May and...
Brexit uncertainty continues to be the key determinant of sterling’s movement in the coming quarters. Market consensus signals that GBPUSD would rally as much as 4% in 6 months and about 6% in 2019. The forecasts are based on...
We are not convinced that the "flash crash" of USDJPY last Thursday was driven by Apple.Inc's lowering of guidance, especially on China. The rally in Japanese yen during the time did not just appear in USDJPY, but also other...
Canadian dollar weakened against US dollar in 2018, first time in three years. Loonie declined over -7% against the greenback last year, with much of the selloff took place in the third quarter. Key factors driving CAD’s movement are...
The consensus forecast that USD’s rally, which began in February this year, is coming to an end hinges on the theses of overvaluation and stretched FX market longs, the slowdown in US economic growth and the end of current...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 18, NET LENGTH in USD Index dropped as bets decreased on both sides. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. During the week,...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 11, NET LENGTH in USD Index dropped modestly while bets increased on both sides. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. During the...
We remain cautious over the 90-day ceasefire on US- China trade dispute. Over the weekend, the US agrees to postpone raising tariff on US$200B worth of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. In return, China would buy significant amount...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 27, NET LENGTH in USD Index slipped slightly whilst bets increased on both sides. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. During the...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 20, NET LENGTH in USD Index persisted although bets were trimmed on both sides. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. This came...
UK PM Theresa May demonstrates to us that her way to end dispute is compromise (to counterparty) and threat (to own people). After months of negotiation, the Withdrawal Agreement for Brexit was approval unanimously by EU member states on...
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