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CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD Supported by Tapering Hopes

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 21, NET LENGTH of USD index futures ADDED +827 contracts to 25 100. The Fed signaled that QE tapering would coon "soon" while half of the committee members projected that rate hike would come as...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Longs Increased USD, EUR and GBP Amidst Tapering Hopes

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 14, NET SHORT of USD index futures gained +2 808 contracts to 24 273. In light of hopes that the Fed would announce plans to taper QE at next week's meeting, traders increased speculative longs...

Aussie’s Weakness Exacerbated by Dovish RBA and Slump in Iron Ore Price

Concerns over inflation, slower economic growth and normalization of monetary stimulus have hurt market sentiment, pressuring commodity currencies over the past week. Among G10 commodity currencies, Australian dollar performed the worst as it was additionally hammered by a dovish RBA and the selloff of iron ore price. Dovish RBA under...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on DXY Index Futures and EUR Futures Declined in Both Sides

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 7, NET SHORT of USD index futures added +775 contracts to 21 465. Trades continued to drop on both sides with speculative long positions down -2 803 contracts while speculative shorts down -3 578. Concerning...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risk Currencies to Gain Ground after Weaker-than-Expected Nonfarm Payrolls

In the last week of August, bets on USD index futures fell on both sides as traders pondered Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech and awaited the August employment report. As speculations of Fed's tapering tamed after both events, it is likely that the euro, as well as commodity...

Kiwi Gains Support from Hawkish RBNZ

New Zealand dollar was the only major currency rose against the US dollar in August, despite speculations over Fed’s tapering and renewed lockdown. We believe policymakers’ proactive reassurance of an October rate hike would likely make the RBNZ the first major central bank to begin rate hike after the...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risk Currencies Got Dumped. Reversal Likely in Coming Week

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 24, NET SHORT of USD index futures gained +1 151 contracts to 20 362. Speculative long positions added +1 151 with no change in shorts. European currencies got dumped in the reporting weeks on resurgence...

Explaining JPY’s Resilience Amidst Fed’s Taper Talks

Japanese yen has been rather stable over the past weeks despite volatility in other major currencies. It's resilient performance over the past few days despite heightened FOMC tapering talks is no accident. We summarize three major drivers of this. Funding Currency Firms on Risk Aversion A key theme of USD’s strength...

Powell More Upbeat about Job Market and Inflation, Stopped Short of Hinting about the Timing of Tapering

The closely-awaited Jackson Hole speech by Fed chair Powell reaffirmed that QE tapering would begin later this year. While being more upbeat about the progress of employment and inflation, Powell warned of the downside risks posed by the rapid spread of the delta variant. He also attempted to de-link...

Loonie’s Outlook Remains Hinged on Crude Oil Price

Commodity currencies suffered last week but Canadian dollar was the worst performer. Loonie declined -2.93% in the past week, making it the weakest amongst major currency pairs. Other than the broad-based strength in US dollar amidst speculations of early taper by the Fed, the sharp selloff in crude oil...

Jackson Hole Symposium Preview: Affirming Likelihood of Taper Announcement in November while Striking Balance between Strong Data and Pandemic Resurgence

Following the FOMC minutes, the attention turns to the Jackson Hole symposium later this week. We expect that the Fed would make formal announcement of QE tapering at the November meeting. With a tapering size of US15B at each meeting, the entire QE program would be complete by September...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risk Currencies Got Dumped on Hopes of Fed’s Tapering and Resurgence of Pandemic

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 17, NET SHORT of USD index futures dropped -115 contracts to 19 211. Speculative long positions slipped -515 contracts while shorts decreased -400 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures jumped +23 783...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Aussie to Go Lower as Resurgence of Pandemic Triggers Lockdown Extension

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 10, NET SHORT of USD index futures added +445 contracts to 19 326. Speculative long positions rose +2 514 contracts while shorts increased +2 069 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures fell...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Expect GBP Futures to Return to Net Long after Hawkish BOE

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 3, NET SHORT of USD index futures gained +2 340 contracts to 18 881. Speculative long positions added +1 703 contracts while shorts decreased -637 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures sank...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Short of GBP Futures will Likely Trim Next Week

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 27, NET SHORT of USD index futures rose +4 353 contracts to 16 541. Speculative long positions added +2 976 contracts while shorts decreased -1 377 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures...

Aussie to Stay Weak in Near-term as Lockdown Measures to Weigh On Third Quarter Growth. RBA could Delay Tapering

AUDUSD is prone to be the weakest performer among majors in July. The selloff accelerated 2 weeks ago as the resurgence of coronavirus has triggered lockdown in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. In the near-term, sentiment over the currency pair could remain weak as state governments would...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Loonie Fell In Line with Crude Oil’s Decline

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 20, NET SHORT of USD index futures gained +931 contracts to 12 188. Speculative long positions added +1 280 contracts while shorts increased +349 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures fell -13...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Increased Bets in USD Futures amidst Price Rebound

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 6, NET SHORT of USD index futures gained +8 017 contracts. Speculative long positions added +2 309 contracts while shorts decreased -5 708 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures fell -9 956...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Longs Declined in European Currencies

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended June 29, NET SHORT of USD index futures slipped -62 contracts. Speculative long positions added +629 contracts while shorts increased +567 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures dropped -1 911 contracts to 87...

Gold Rarely Declines with Real Yield. This Time Due to USD Strength

Gold price got dumped, falling to the lowest level in over 2 months. Losing over -7% against USD in June, the selloff this time has been driven by strong US dollar, rather than higher yields. The greenback is darling of the market recently, thanks to strong economic data, a...