Mon, Jan 21, 2019 @ 03:34 GMT
The UK Parliament rejected the Brexit deal (Withdrawal Agreement) proposed by PM Theresa May at 432 to 202 votes. The 230- vote margin marks the biggest defeat in the country’s political history. The government now has three days to...
GDP growth should have moderated in 4Q18 and would remain lukewarm 1H19. Although the Italian government eventually backed down in the budget plan, political risks in the region have not yet abated. European Parliament election scheduled in mid-May and...
Brexit uncertainty continues to be the key determinant of sterling’s movement in the coming quarters. Market consensus signals that GBPUSD would rally as much as 4% in 6 months and about 6% in 2019. The forecasts are based on...
We are not convinced that the "flash crash" of USDJPY last Thursday was driven by Apple.Inc's lowering of guidance, especially on China. The rally in Japanese yen during the time did not just appear in USDJPY, but also other...
Canadian dollar weakened against US dollar in 2018, first time in three years. Loonie declined over -7% against the greenback last year, with much of the selloff took place in the third quarter. Key factors driving CAD’s movement are...
The consensus forecast that USD’s rally, which began in February this year, is coming to an end hinges on the theses of overvaluation and stretched FX market longs, the slowdown in US economic growth and the end of current...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 18, NET LENGTH in USD Index dropped as bets decreased on both sides. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. During the week,...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 11, NET LENGTH in USD Index dropped modestly while bets increased on both sides. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. During the...
We remain cautious over the 90-day ceasefire on US- China trade dispute. Over the weekend, the US agrees to postpone raising tariff on US$200B worth of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. In return, China would buy significant amount...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 27, NET LENGTH in USD Index slipped slightly whilst bets increased on both sides. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. During the...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 20, NET LENGTH in USD Index persisted although bets were trimmed on both sides. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. This came...
UK PM Theresa May demonstrates to us that her way to end dispute is compromise (to counterparty) and threat (to own people). After months of negotiation, the Withdrawal Agreement for Brexit was approval unanimously by EU member states on...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 13, NET LENGTH in USD Index persisted despite little volume. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. This came in line with the...
Brexit news again dominates the headline as UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she has gained support from the Cabinet the Withdrawal Deal hammered out between the UK and EU. End of the story? Not yet. If both...
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 6 shows that all major currencies (except USD) remained in NET SHORT positions. Speculative longs on USD index fell -1 564 contracts while shorts declined -2 323, sending...
The dust is settled on the result of US midterm elections. As polls have suggested, the Congress is split with Republicans continuing the control of the Senate and Democrats is taking over the House. In our election preview, we have...
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 30 shows that all major currencies (except USD) were in NET SHORT positions. Speculative longs on USD index added +1 040 contracts while shorts dropped -455, sending the...
At the meeting later this week, we expect BOE members to vote unanimously to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75% and the asset purchase program at 435B pound. The macroeconomic indicators released during the inter-meeting period are mixed,...
The Brazilian presidential and German state elections over the weekend have sent a common message - the desire for change. The election results reveal that the anti-establishment and populist sentiment continues to ferment. Both elections have led to severe...
Italy's budget problem continues to haunt. S&P refrained from downgrading Italy's sovereign credit rating, keeping it at BBB, two notches above junk grade. Yet, the relief might just be temporary as the rating agency has placed the country in...
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