Central Bank Views
RBA Preview: Cautiously Optimistic over Recovery; QE Expected to Increase Further in 2021
After some big moves in November, we believe the RBA will stay put at this week’s meeting. Given the good news about vaccine and the steady decline in the country’s coronavirus cases and, we do not feel surprise if the members turn more upbeat this month.
Economic data released since...
FOMC Minutes: Fed Seriously Considered Adjusting QE
The minutes for the FOMC meeting in November shows that policymakers were cautiously optimistic about the economic recovery and the impacts of the monetary policy tools on the economic outlook. As negative interest rate has been ruled out, the Fed's future policy tool is dependent on asset purchases (QE)....
RBA Minutes Affirm that Future Monetary Policy will Rely on QE
The RBA minutes for the November contained little news. After cutting the policy to a new low of 0.1%, policymakers suggested the policy tool in the future will mainly be asset purchases. While the members remained reluctant to lower interest rates to negative, they might have to follow if...
Chance of Negative OCR Reduces as RBNZ More Confident About Economic Outlook
RBNZ announced that a Funding for Lending Program (FLP) will be implemented in “early December” with an initial size of about NZD 28B. Further details will be announced in coming weeks. The program aims at providing loans to commercial banks at low cost (e.g.: 0.25%). The central bank left...
RBNZ Preview – Introducing New Lending Program with Dovish Tone Maintained
The focus of this week's RBNZ meeting is on details of the Funding for Lending (FLP) program. We expect this program would be implemented before the end of the year and would be the key policy tool of the central bank in the future. Concerning other monetary measures, the...
Fed Discussed Options to Adjust QE, More Details Probably Out Next Month
As widely anticipated, the Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and asset purchases at US$120B per month. The decisions were made unanimously. The members acknowledged that economic recovery remained under way. Yet, they warned of the downside risks to growth amidst the huge uncertainty of the coronavirus...
BOE’s QE Expansion Exceeds Expectations as Economy Heads for Double Dip
While leaving the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%, BOE raised the size of asset purchases (QE) by +135B pound to 875 pound. Both decisions were made unanimously. The expansion came in larger than we had anticipated. The staff also revised lower GDP growth outlook, now expecting the economy to...
FOMC Preview – Fed to Discuss Asset Purchases Arrangement as Balance Sheet Surpasses US$ 7 Trillion
We do not expect any change in the monetary policy at the November meeting. That is, the Fed should leave the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and the asset purchases program unchanged at US$120B/month. The central bank will maintain a dovish stance, warning that risks to growth are skewed...
RBA Cuts Rates and Increases QE Purchases for at Least 6 More Months
As expected, RBA announced further monetary easing at today’s meeting. RBA cut the cash rate to 0.1%, from 0.25% previously. Similarly, the target for the yield on the 3-year government bond yield and the interest rate on new drawings under the Term Funding Facility were also lowered to 0.1%....
BOE Preview – Expanding QE Size while Keeping Rate Unchanged at Record Low
At the meeting this week, we expect BOE to increase the size of asset purchases (QE), by 100B pound, to 845B pound. The Bank rate will stay unchanged at 0.1%. Economic data released since the last meeting suggest that the members’ forecasts in August were too optimistic. A downgrade...
RBA Preview – Expecting New Easing Package of Rate Cuts and QE Expansion
It is widely anticipated that RBA will announce more easing measures at this week’s meeting. The package of measures will likely include a rate cut to 0.1% and expansion of the yield curve control program with the focus on 5-10 year bonds.
Economic Development since October
Economic data released since the...
ECB Expects “Very Negative” Data in November, Pledges to Recalibrate Measures to Downturn
ECB has announced to leave all its monetary policy measures unchanged. The deposit rate stays at -0.5%, while the main refi rate and the marginal lending rate also remain unchanged at 0% and 0.25% respectively. The PEPP program will continue to run with a total envelope of 1.35 trillion...
BOC Recalibrated QE with Focus on Long-term Bonds. Downgraded Growth for 2021
BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 0.25% in October. The central bank explicitly noted that the policy rate will stay unchanged at least until 2023. Meanwhile, it announced to “recalibrate” the QE program, reducing weekly purchases “gradually” to at least CAD 4 billion and turning the focus to...
ECB Preview – More Stimulus to Come in December as Recovery Loses Momentum
Economic data released since the September signaled that the recovery might have lost momentum. This is a worrying signs as renewed lockdown measures in light of the second wave are expected to damage the recovery further. As a preparatory meeting for more stimulus in December, ECB will turn more...
BOC Preview – Staying Cautious about the Uneven Recovery
BOC will likely leave the policy rate unchanged at 0.25% next week’s meeting. After surprising unwinding of some operations last week, the rest of easing measures put in place since March should remain unchanged. Inter-meeting data flow shows that economic recovery is underway in Canada. However, the pace is...
RBA Minutes Reveal Strong Conviction to Further Easing in November
RBA's minutes for the October meeting offered more supports that further easing will be rolled out soon. Potential measures include rate cuts and asset purchases. The bottom line is that the policy rate will not go negative. Assistant Governor Christopher Kent's speech earlier today signaled strongly the easing bias....
ECB Minutes Tilted to Dovish Side
The message sent from the ECB minutes came in more dovish that the meeting statement released a few weeks ago. Policymakers were concerned about the inflation outlook more than previously expected. Despite upward revisions to the economic projections, the members stressed that there were “key downside risks to the...
FOMC Minutes Reveal that Upgrade on Economy Greatly Hinged on More Fiscal Stimulus
The minutes for the September FOMC meeting reveals that the members generally agreed to adopt the new monetary policy framework and change the forward guidance in the way presented in the statement. While the economic projections were upgraded in the meeting, these were conditioned on the further fiscal stimulus...
RBA Left Rates Unchanged at 0.25%. Hinted to Add Stimulus to Support Job Market
As widely anticipated, RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.25% at the October meeting. The yield curve control target also stays at 0.25%. This is the 7th consecutive month that the central bank has kept the monetary policy unchanged. While economic recovery is underway, policymakers judged that the...
RBA Preview: Preparing the Market for Rate Cut and QE Expansion
RBA will likely use the opportunity of the upcoming meeting to prepare the market for more monetary easing in November. The stimulus measures due later this week should include reduction in the cash rate, yield curve control (YCC) target and Term Funding Facility (TFF) rate to 0.1%, from the...