Central Bank Views
RBA Review – QE Might Increase Further to Curb Rising Yields and Exchange Rate
As widely anticipated, the RBA left all monetary policy measures unchanged. As a summary, the cash rate target, the 3-year Australian Government Bond ‘Yield Curve Control’ (YCC) target and the Term Funding Facility (TFF) interest rate all stay at 0.1%. The size of the asset purchase program (QE) is...
RBA Preview – Assessing Impacts of Rising Yields on Economy after Unexpected Increase in Bond Buying
At tomorrow’s meeting, the RBA should leave all monetary measures unchanged. The cash rate, 3-year yield target and the rate on the TFF program will stay unchanged at 0.1%. The QE program will likely remain intact as the central bank only doubled the size to AU$200B last month. While...
RBNZ Upgraded Economic Forecasts, NZD Shot Higher
The RBNZ delivered a more upbeat statement at today meeting. While leaving the monetary policy measures unchanged and warned of the uneven economic recovery, the staff upgraded the economic projections significantly. Policymakers also introduced a new forward guidance which suggests that policy adjustment will only be made until the...
Fed Powell Cautioned about Uneven Recovery, Pledged to Maintain Stimulus
At the testimony before the Senate, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that the economic recovery is uneven. He pledged to maintain sufficient support to achieving the employment and inflation targets.
Concerning economic developments, Powell refrained from sending a too optimistic message. He affirmed that the recovery highly depends on the...
RBNZ Preview – Policymakers to Sound Less Dovish with Yields and NZD Strengthened
We expect the RBNZ to deliver a less dovish message in the upcoming meeting. Economic data released since the November meeting have been encouraging, with the price level and the job market on track to reach the target. These should lead to upgrades in the economic projections. Financial conditions...
Fed Cautiously Optimistic about Recovery with Fiscal Support. USD Upside Limited as Accommodative Policy Remains in Place
The FOMC minutes for the January meeting revealed that policymakers were cautiously optimistic over the economic outlook. Meanwhile, it also dampened hopes of tapering. US dollar's rebound has been driven by more upbeat economic data and rising yields. However, the Fed's pledge to maintain an ultra accommodative policy should...
BOE Upbeat about Inflation Outlook. Negative Rate Seems Unlikely although It is Not Ruled Out
As expected, BOE left the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%. Meanwhile, the QE program also remains at 875B pound worth of government bonds, and 20B pound of corporate debt. The economic projections reveal that policymakers are more optimistic about inflation projecting it to reach the +2% target this year....
RBA Extends Asset Purchases of AUD 100B Until September
RBA announced to extend the asset purchase program by an additional AUD100B as the current program ends in mid- April. Meanwhile, it has turned more upbeat about the global and domestic economic outlook, and upgraded GDP and employment forecasts.
RBA turns more upbeat over the global and domestic economic outlook....
BOE Preview – Awaiting Updates on Negative Rate Policy and Economic Projections
There are several things to watch for this week’s BOE meeting: 1) updates on the review of negative interest rate; 2) adjustment to QE; 3) economic projections. All policy measures will stay unchanged this week with the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%, and the size of the asset purchases...
RBA to Leave Policy Unchanged and Remain Cautious about Outlook Despite Recovery
The RBA will have its first meeting this year on Tuesday, followed by publication of the statement of monetary policy on Thursday. We expect all policy measures to stay unchanged this month. Policymakers could revise GDP forecast higher and the unemployment rate lower, given the better-than- expected economic data...
Fed Indicated that QE Tapering is Premature and Bar to Adjust Policy is High
The December FOMC meeting contained little news. However, Chair Powell sent a clear indication that tapering is “premature” for the time being and that the bar to adjust the monetary policy is higher. The Fed left all measures unchanged at the meeting. The Fed funds rate stays at 0-0.25%...
FOMC Preview – Cautious about Economic Weakness but Fiscal Stimulus should lend Support
The FOMC meeting in the coming week will not bring any change in the monetary policy. Economic activities have moderated since the December meeting, while resurgence in the coronavirus cases could hurt economic activities more seriously than previously expected. Yet, roll-out of more fiscal stimulus and positive vaccination progress...
ECB Gets Slightly More Hawkish, Revealing that it might Not Use All of PEPP Envelope
The ECB left its powder dry in January. While continuing to warn of the downside risks on the Eurozone and global economy, the central bank delivered a hawkish tweak about operation of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). On the monetary policy measures, the central bank left the size...
BOJ Downgraded Economic Outlook for FY2020, Inflation to Fare Better During Forecasting Horizon
The January BOJ is non-eventful. Cautioning that risks to the economic outlook is tilted to the downside, the central bank announced to leave all its stimulus measures unchanged. In contrast to speculations, the central bank did not adjust the implicit trading band of the 10-year JGB yield.
There is a...
ECB Preview – Awaiting More Comments of Strong Euro
While ECB would likely leave its monetary policy measures unchanged this week, the market should focus on several issues: members’ view on recent euro strength, discussions on QE tapering and economic impacts of renewed lockdown. Following the recalibration in December, ECB would leave the size of the Pandemic Emergency...
BOC Preview – All Eyes on Likelihood of Micro Rate Cut
BOC is widely expected to leave its overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 0.25% in January. The size of asset purchases will also stay unchanged at CAD4B/week. Over the past month, there has been market speculations about the possibility of a micro rate cut since November. While...
BOE Stays Put as Deadline of Brexit Talk Approaches
BOE left the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1% and the asset purchase program at 875B pound. The central bank remained cautious about the “unusually uncertain” economic outlook and pledged to take “whatever additional action is necessary” if the outlook for inflation weakens. Despite forecasts that GDP growth in December...
Fed Pledged to Continue QE Until “Substantial Progress” Seen in Employment and Inflation
The major changes in the December were forward guidance in the asset purchase program (QE) as well as upgrades in economic forecasts. The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and asset purchases at US$120B per month. The updated median dot plot suggests that no rate hike is...
BOE Preview – Staying Cautious about Brexit Outlook
For QE expansion at the last meeting, we expect the BOE will keep its powder dry this month. BOE should leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%, and the size of asset purchases (QE) at 875 pound. There have been mixed developments since the November meeting. Economic data released...
FOMC Preview – Fed to Update Forward Guidance on QE
At the last meeting of the year, we expect the Fed to be more cautious about the near-term outlook, while more optimistic over the longer-term. The focus of the meeting will be on the adjustment of the forward guidance about the asset purchase program. It will be a qualitative,...