Fri, Jan 17, 2020 @ 18:19 GMT
Signing of the Phase I trade deal marks an end of the beginning the trade war between the US and China. While the deal covers various areas of great concerns to the US, including China’s imports of US goods...
China’s foreign trade surprised to the upside in December. Exports rose +7.6% y/y in the last month of 2019, compared with consensus of +2.9%. Meanwhile, imports jumped +13.6% y/y, beating expectations of +9.6%. Both outbound and inbound shipment improved...
As in last year, Chinese Yuan will remain directed by the US-China trade war in 2020. Although China’s economy continues to struggle and PBOC’s monetary policy is tilted to the accommodative side, CNY should stabilize against USD if trade...
A number of good news has increased optimism over China. Following announcement of a Phase I trade deal with the US, the latest set of economic data surprised to the upside in November. However, we expect the bullishness will...
Headline CPI in China accelerated to +4.5% y/y in November, from +3.8% a month ago. The key contributor to strong inflation is fresh vegetable and pork prices. Non-food price climbed +1% y/y from +0.9% in October. Excluding food and...
Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) suggested that the manufacturing China improved in November. Improvement in manufacturing PMIs signaled that upcoming industrial production data can surprise to the upside. The official PMI improved +0.9 point to 50.2 in November. This marks the...
We expect China’s monetary policy will be more expansionary in coming months as the economy slows further. Struggling between boosting growth and curbing CPI acceleration, the authority has probably chosen the former. Meanwhile, PBOC is obliged to do more...
China’s major economic data in October all missed expectations and slowed from a month ago. Growth in industrial production decelerated to +4.7% y/y, from +5.8% in September. Retail sales growth weakened to 7.2% m/m, compared with +7.8% in September....
Headline CPI in China accelerated further to +3.8% y/y in October. This had exceeded consensus of +3.4% and breached the 3% target for the first time since 2013. Food price, in particular pork price, was again the key driver...
For the first time in over 3 years, People’s Bank of China (PBOC) lowers the rate of the 1-year medium lending facility (MLF) by -5 bps to 3.25%. This surprising move underlines the rapid deterioration of domestic growth and...
The market was surprised to see that PBOC left the loan prime rate (LPR), its latest benchmark rate, unchanged in October following two consecutive cuts in the prior two months. Yet, this came in line with our expectations that...
Headline CPI in China rose to +3% y/y in September, reaching PBOC’s target for first time since December 2013. However, this was driven by elevated pork price rather than improvement in household spending. Food price jumped +11.2%, accelerating from...
China’s macroeconomic indicators showed significant weakness across the board. Industrial production gained +4.4% y/y in August, easing from +4.8% in the prior month. The growth rate came in weaker than consensus of +5.2% and marks the slowest in over...
China announced that 16 types of US exports will be exempted from tariff. While this may be a gesture ahead of the October trade negotiation, we view this as a sign of further weakness in china’s economic outlook. Trade...
PBOC has recently made some changes in its interest rate policy. Following the move to link the loan prime rate (LPR) to open market operations, the medium lending facility (MLF) rate, the central bank over the weekend announced the...
China’s economic data surprised to the downside in July. Delay in US tariff should have limited boost on China’s growth outlook. Industrial production gained +4.8% y/y in July, missing consensus of +5.8% and June’s 6.3%. The slowdown is the...
Headline CPI in China accelerated to +2.8% y/y in July, from +2.7% a month ago. Same as previous months, the key driver of inflation was food prices, which jumped +9.1% y/y in July. In June, food prices also rose...
GDP growth eased to +6.2% y/y in 2Q19, down from +6.4% in the prior quarter. This marks the weakest growth in 27 years. On a q/q saar basis, GDP growth moderated sharply to +5.6% from first quarter's +6.9%. For...
China headline CPI stayed unchanged at 2.7% y/y in June. Most of the increase was driven by food price. While African swine fever has caused pork price to soar, extreme weather affected harvest, sending fruit price higher. Food price...
Despite the mixed headline readings, China's macroeconomic data in May were in line with our view that the country's economy continues to slow. Growth in industrial production fell to 5% y/y, missing consensus of , and April's, 5.4%. IP growth...
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