Tue, Oct 20, 2020 @ 16:48 GMT
The latest set of China's macroeconomic data is mixed in the headline. GDP growth in the third quarter came in below market expectation. However, major indicators such as industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all beat consensus,...
China’s headline CPI moderated to +1.7% y/y in September, from +2.4% a month ago. This has missed consensus of +1.9%. The weakness was mainly driven by pork inflation which slowed to +25.5% y/y, from +52.6% in August. This contributed...
PBOC announced over the weekend to lower the FX risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0, effective October 12. The move is likely a response to the strength in renminbi (a.k.a. RMB, CNY). The...
The latest economic indicators show that China’s economy continued to recovery in September. NBS’ official manufacturing PMI climbed +0.5 point higher to 51.5 in September, beating consensus of 51.3. The non-manufacturing PMI also increased to 55.9 from 55.2 in...
The latest set of macroecononmic indicators in China suggests that economic activities surprised to the upside in August. Growth in industrial production accelerated while retail sales gained first the first time since February. Better-than-expected data in August signals that...
Headline CPI moderated to +2.4% y/y in August, from +2.7% a month ago. High base and softened growth in food inflation was the key reason for the slowdown. Food price rose +11.2% y/y, decelerated from +13.2% in July. This...
China's manufacturing PMI (by Caixin) rose to almost a decade high of 53.1 August, from 52.8 a month ago. This indicates that China’s manufacturing activities have been expanding over the past 4 months and the rebound has accelerated. The...
Renminbi (a.k.a. RMB, CNY) has strengthened against US dollar over the past 3 weeks. While the broad-based USD weakness is the key reason, PBOC's neutral policy action over the past months has also led to renminbi's appreciation. We expect...
The latest set of macroeconomic data suggests that the pace of recovery in China remained slow, as a result of flooding and second wave of coronavirus outbreak. Improvement industrial activities decelerated, while retail sales continued to shrink. Weak domestic...
China’s trade data surprised to the upside in July. This was mainly driven by strong exports, offsetting decline in imports. Exports gained +7.2% y/y in July, following a 0.5% increase a month. This has beaten consensus of a -0.6%...
China’s official PMI report reveals that economic activities continued to expand in July. However, the pace of recovery varied across sectors. Manufacturing and construction activities improved faster than expected, thanks to better overseas demand government’s stimulus measures. However, the...
PBOC has left the policy rate, the 1-year loan prime rate, at 3.85% in July. The 5-year loan prime rate also stays at 4.65%. The decision has been widely anticipated, as the medium lending facility (MLF) rate, the guidance...
GDP expanded +3.2% y/y in 2Q20, beating consensus of +2.4%. From a quarter ago, the expanded jumped+11.5%. Concerning major macroeconomic indicators in June, industrial production (IP) rose +4.8% y/y in June, in line with expectations and accelerating from +4.4%...
Headline CPI improved further to +2.5% y/y in June, from +2.4% a month ago. This came in line with market expectations Core CPI (excluding food and energy) eased to +0.9% y/y, from +1.1% in May. While staying in the...
The phenomenon of rising interest rates since early May appears contradictory to Chinese government’s commitment to maintain “liquidity at a reasonably ample level”. PBOC's leaving of the loan prime rate (LPR), China’s policy rate, unchanged in May and June...
Headline CPI slowed further to +2.4% y/y in May, from +3.3% a month ago. The market had anticipated a milder drop to +2.7%. The reading is the lowest since April 2019 and the first time below +3% since August...
PBOC this morning announced to leave the loan prime rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.85%. While this had been widely anticipated, it should not be interpreted as a signal of unwinding monetary stimulus. We believe the pause allows the central...
Industrial production (IP) expanded +3.9% y/y in April, beating consensus of +1.5% growth and a -1.1% contraction in the prior month. The strong recovery was mainly driven by the low base effect. Production of automobile, and machinery and equipment...
Headline CPI eased to +3.3% y/y in April, from +4.3% a month ago. This also marked a two-percentage-point fall from January’s peak. While the major growth driver remained food price, it has been decelerating as the corovavirus outbreak has...
After two months' delay, the long-awaited “two sessions” will be held in two weeks’ time. The National People’s Congress (NPC) is scheduled on May 22 while the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Committee (CPPCC) is scheduled on May 21. The...
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