Thu, Nov 21, 2019 @ 06:20 GMT
China’s major economic data in October all missed expectations and slowed from a month ago. Growth in industrial production decelerated to +4.7% y/y, from +5.8% in September. Retail sales growth weakened to 7.2% m/m, compared with +7.8% in September....
Headline CPI in China accelerated further to +3.8% y/y in October. This had exceeded consensus of +3.4% and breached the 3% target for the first time since 2013. Food price, in particular pork price, was again the key driver...
For the first time in over 3 years, People’s Bank of China (PBOC) lowers the rate of the 1-year medium lending facility (MLF) by -5 bps to 3.25%. This surprising move underlines the rapid deterioration of domestic growth and...
The market was surprised to see that PBOC left the loan prime rate (LPR), its latest benchmark rate, unchanged in October following two consecutive cuts in the prior two months. Yet, this came in line with our expectations that...
Headline CPI in China rose to +3% y/y in September, reaching PBOC’s target for first time since December 2013. However, this was driven by elevated pork price rather than improvement in household spending. Food price jumped +11.2%, accelerating from...
China’s macroeconomic indicators showed significant weakness across the board. Industrial production gained +4.4% y/y in August, easing from +4.8% in the prior month. The growth rate came in weaker than consensus of +5.2% and marks the slowest in over...
China announced that 16 types of US exports will be exempted from tariff. While this may be a gesture ahead of the October trade negotiation, we view this as a sign of further weakness in china’s economic outlook. Trade...
PBOC has recently made some changes in its interest rate policy. Following the move to link the loan prime rate (LPR) to open market operations, the medium lending facility (MLF) rate, the central bank over the weekend announced the...
China’s economic data surprised to the downside in July. Delay in US tariff should have limited boost on China’s growth outlook. Industrial production gained +4.8% y/y in July, missing consensus of +5.8% and June’s 6.3%. The slowdown is the...
Headline CPI in China accelerated to +2.8% y/y in July, from +2.7% a month ago. Same as previous months, the key driver of inflation was food prices, which jumped +9.1% y/y in July. In June, food prices also rose...
GDP growth eased to +6.2% y/y in 2Q19, down from +6.4% in the prior quarter. This marks the weakest growth in 27 years. On a q/q saar basis, GDP growth moderated sharply to +5.6% from first quarter's +6.9%. For...
China headline CPI stayed unchanged at 2.7% y/y in June. Most of the increase was driven by food price. While African swine fever has caused pork price to soar, extreme weather affected harvest, sending fruit price higher. Food price...
Despite the mixed headline readings, China's macroeconomic data in May were in line with our view that the country's economy continues to slow. Growth in industrial production fell to 5% y/y, missing consensus of , and April's, 5.4%. IP growth...
The US-China trade war continues to evolve. The upcoming important event would be the G-20 summit on June 28 and 29. US' Donald Trump has recently noted that he expects to meet China's Xi Jinping, or would impose 25%...
China’s White Paper, entitled “China's Position on the China-U.S. Economic and Trade Consultations” on recent escalations of trade war has weighed on the fragile market. While the majority of market participants judges that China has opted for a hardliner...
Economic data in April prove that China’s economy is not yet out of the wood. Growth in industrial production , retail sales and fixed asset investment all surprised to downside, suggesting that the rebound in March was only due...
Disappointing trade data in China was mainly driven by the large contraction in exports. Instead of merely bilateral trade conflict between the US and China, the broadly based slowdown in exports to China's major trading partners indicates that global...
China’s GDP expanded +6.4% y/y in 1Q19, same pace as 4Q18 but beating consensus of +6.3%. Major macroeconomic data showed strong rebound in March and exceeded expectations. Over the past weeks, data flow in China has already signaled improvement...
Renminbi internationalization The IMF’s latest report reveals that the process of renminbi internationalization remains sluggish as renminbi (Chinese Yuan) is still a tiny portion of global central banks's FX reserve. In 4Q18, 1.89% global FX reserve was allocated to renminbi...
Markit/Caixin’s PMI report shows recovery in China’s economy in March. The composite output index rose to 52.9 in March, from 50.7 in the prior month. This marks the highest level since June 2018. While the manufacturing sector returned to...
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