Awaiting Overdue Rebound in USDCNY
Strengthening against US dollar for 8 consecutive months, Renminbi (Chinese yuan) has accumulated gains of about 10% since June 2020. We believe the rally is overextended as China's economic recovery has shown signs of losing steam while yield differential between US and China has narrowed over the past few...
China’s Inflation Surprised to Upside in December. Outlook Moderates amidst Fall in Pork Price
China’s inflation surprised to the upside in December. Thanks to food price, headline CPI improved to +0.2% y/y in December, compared to deflation of -0.5% a month ago. Food inflation rebounded to +1.2% y/y, after contracting -2% a month ago, as pork price deflation narrowed to -1.3% from November’s...
China’s November Data Signals Recovery Continues. PBOC to Keep Powder Dry
The latest set of economic data indicates economic recovery in China continued. Growth in industrial production improved slightly, while manufacturing investment accelerated, thanks to strong exports growth. Retail sales growth accelerated, suggesting internal circulation has taken effect.
Industrial production expanded +7% y/y in November, inline with expectations and up +0.1...
China Fell into Deflation First Time in More than a Decade
The country recorded deflation for the first time since October 2009. Headline CPI contracted -0.5% y/y in November, compared with consensus of a flat reading and a +0.5% gain in October. Food inflation dropped -2% y/y in November following a +2.2% gain in October. Of which egg and pork...
China’s Economic Recovery and Less Policy Accommodation Lend Support to Renminbi
The latest set of economic data in China reflects that recovery continued in October. Growth was seen in both the supply and demand sides. However, while supply side continued to expand more than anticipated, the consumer spending did not perform as strong as market expectations. PBOC has recently mentioned...
China Data – Inflation Slowed Markedly on Food Price; Trade Surplus Widened as Exports Growth Strongly
China’s inflation moderated in October. Headline CPI eased sharply to +0.5% y/y, from +1.7% a month ago. The decline was mainly driven by food price, of which growth decelerated to +2.2% from September’s +7.9%. Non-food price actually stayed flat at 0%, while core CPI also steadied at +0.5%. Concerning...
China’s GDP Growth Missed Consensus. Strong Activity Data Support Renminbi’s Outlook
The latest set of China's macroeconomic data is mixed in the headline. GDP growth in the third quarter came in below market expectation. However, major indicators such as industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all beat consensus, confirming recovery is underway. Against this backdrop, we expect PBOC...
China’s Inflation Weakened as Growth in Food Price Decelerated. Subdued Core CPI Evidenced Domestic Economy Not Yet Out of the Woods
China’s headline CPI moderated to +1.7% y/y in September, from +2.4% a month ago. This has missed consensus of +1.9%. The weakness was mainly driven by pork inflation which slowed to +25.5% y/y, from +52.6% in August. This contributed about 0.7 percentage point to headline CPI’s moderation. Fresh vegetable...
PBOC Moves to Curb Renminbi’s Strength
PBOC announced over the weekend to lower the FX risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0, effective October 12. The move is likely a response to the strength in renminbi (a.k.a. RMB, CNY). The central bank pledged to “maintain the flexibility of the RMB...
PMIs Suggest China’s Recovery Remained Intact in September. Yield Differential to Support CNY
The latest economic indicators show that China’s economy continued to recovery in September. NBS’ official manufacturing PMI climbed +0.5 point higher to 51.5 in September, beating consensus of 51.3. The non-manufacturing PMI also increased to 55.9 from 55.2 in August. The composite index gained +0.6 point to 55.1 last...
Upbeat August Chinese Data Suggests PBOC to Leave Rates Unchanged for Longer
The latest set of macroecononmic indicators in China suggests that economic activities surprised to the upside in August. Growth in industrial production accelerated while retail sales gained first the first time since February. Better-than-expected data in August signals that it is less likely for PBOC to cut interest rates.
Industrial...
Subdued Core CPI and Contraction in Imports Suggest It Takes Time to Revive China’s Domestic Demand
Headline CPI moderated to +2.4% y/y in August, from +2.7% a month ago. High base and softened growth in food inflation was the key reason for the slowdown. Food price rose +11.2% y/y, decelerated from +13.2% in July. This was mainly driven by the sharp moderation of pork inflation...
Sharp Rise in Manufacturing PMI Signals that PBOC will Keep the Powder Dry for the Month
China's manufacturing PMI (by Caixin) rose to almost a decade high of 53.1 August, from 52.8 a month ago. This indicates that China’s manufacturing activities have been expanding over the past 4 months and the rebound has accelerated. The accompanying report noted that output and new orders showed biggest...
PBOC’s Restraint Monetary Policy will Continue to Support CNY vs USD. US-China Tensions as Major Downside Risk
Renminbi (a.k.a. RMB, CNY) has strengthened against US dollar over the past 3 weeks. While the broad-based USD weakness is the key reason, PBOC's neutral policy action over the past months has also led to renminbi's appreciation. We expect the phenomenon would persist, supporting renminbi, in coming months.
PBOC announced...
China’s Retail Sales Shrank Further, Evidencing Weak Domestic Demand
The latest set of macroeconomic data suggests that the pace of recovery in China remained slow, as a result of flooding and second wave of coronavirus outbreak. Improvement industrial activities decelerated, while retail sales continued to shrink. Weak domestic spending was evident in subdued core CPI released earlier this...
China’s Trade Surplus Widened in July, Trade Deal Review Next Week In Focus
China’s trade data surprised to the upside in July. This was mainly driven by strong exports, offsetting decline in imports. Exports gained +7.2% y/y in July, following a 0.5% increase a month. This has beaten consensus of a -0.6% drop. From a month ago, exports rose +5.7$, after climbing...
China’s Economy Continued to Improve in July, but Pace Varied Across Sectors
China’s official PMI report reveals that economic activities continued to expand in July. However, the pace of recovery varied across sectors. Manufacturing and construction activities improved faster than expected, thanks to better overseas demand government’s stimulus measures. However, the services sector was dragged as household demand remained weak. Although...
PBOC Left Policy Rate Unchanged for Three Months, Affirming Targeted Monetary Easing Stance
PBOC has left the policy rate, the 1-year loan prime rate, at 3.85% in July. The 5-year loan prime rate also stays at 4.65%. The decision has been widely anticipated, as the medium lending facility (MLF) rate, the guidance rate for the LPR, was also kept unchanged at 2.95%...
China Recorded Strong Recovery in 2Q20 but Domestic Demand Remained Weak. Risks Skewed to Downside in Second Half
GDP expanded +3.2% y/y in 2Q20, beating consensus of +2.4%. From a quarter ago, the expanded jumped+11.5%. Concerning major macroeconomic indicators in June, industrial production (IP) rose +4.8% y/y in June, in line with expectations and accelerating from +4.4% in May. Urban fixed asset investment (FAI) declined -3.1% y/y...
China CPI Picked Up Due to Temporary Food Price Increase, Unlikely Derail Easing Monetary Policy Stance
Headline CPI improved further to +2.5% y/y in June, from +2.4% a month ago. This came in line with market expectations Core CPI (excluding food and energy) eased to +0.9% y/y, from +1.1% in May. While staying in the negative territory, PPI improved to -3% y/y in June, up...