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Crude Oil Prices to Hover around Current Levels as Supply Increases amidst Better Demand Outlook

Both crude oil benchmarks have been range-bounded after pulling back from the peaks in early March. Although global economic recovery is still underway and the pandemic situation has largely stabilized, the ramp-up of output by OPEC members and non-OPEC producers have raised concerns over whether the growth in world...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Long Sank in Crude Oil While Increased in Precious Metal Futures

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended April 6, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures plunged -19 585 contracts to 511 725 for the week. Speculative long position fell -21 921 contracts, while shorts dropped -2 336 contracts. OPEC+'s decision to increase output from...

US Crude Inventory Declined More than Expected. Refinery Products Saw Stock-build

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks gained +2.31 mmb to 1292.63 mmb in the week ended April 2. Crude oil inventory sank -3 522 mmb (consensus: -1.44 mmb) to 498.31 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 4...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Crude Oil Trimmed on Both Sides

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended March 30, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +8 255 contracts to 531 310 for the week. Speculative long position fell -11 857 contracts, while shorts declined -20 112 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...

Crude Oil Remained Under Pressure although Inventory Surprisingly Increased

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks dropped -1.35 mmb to 1290.33 mmb in the week ended March 26. Crude oil inventory slipped -0.88 mmb (consensus: -0.1 mmb) to 501.84 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 3 out...

Gold Price Pressured as Upbeat Data and Less Dovish Fed Support Yields

Rising Treasury yields continue to weigh on gold. The Comex gold contract is on the way to record a second consecutive week of decline. Encouraging economic data and a less dovish Fed are the key factors pressuring the yellow metal. US economic data have been upbeat. Consumer confidence jumped +19.3...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Increased Bets on Lower Precious Metal Prices

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended March 23, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures declined -2 387 contracts to 523 055 for the week. Speculative long position gained +2 507 contracts, while shorts rose +4 894 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...

US Crude Oil Inventory Surprisingly Gained for a 5th Consecutive Week

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks soared +4.79 mmb to 1291.67 mmb in the week ended March 19. Crude oil inventory gained +1.91 mmb (consensus: -0.27 mmb) to 502.71 mmb. Stockpile increased in 2 out...

Selloff of Crude Oil Amidst Risk Aversion

Crude oil prices have extended the selloff for a third consecutive week. While the demand/supply fundamentals have changed little, the major reason for the decline is the broadly-based risk aversion driven by rising yields. International Energy Agency (IEA)’s report refuting prospect of a commodity supercycle has also triggered the...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Profit Taking on Crude Oil Trades amidst Rising Yields

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended March 16, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures sank -11 996 contracts to 525 442 for the week. Speculative long position plunged -12 000 contracts, while shorts were down -4 contracts. We should expect to see more...

US Refined Products Showed Surprising Stock-Builds

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks soared +3.59 mmb to 1288.89 mmb in the week ended March 12. Crude oil inventory gained +2.4 mmb (consensus: +2.96 mmb,) to 500.8 mmb. Stockpile increased in 2 out...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Crude Oil Shorts Trimmed as Price Rallied Further

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended March 9, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures rallied +18 419 contracts to 537 438 for the week. Speculative long position gained +4 279 contracts, while shorts declined -14 140 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...

US Crude Oil Inventory Increased to Highest Level This Year

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks gained +1.32 mmb to 1283 mmb in the week ended March 5. Crude oil inventory soared +13.8 mmb (consensus: +3 mmb,) to 498.4 mmb. The increase remained large although...

US Crude Inventory Recorded Biggest Weekly Increase in History

Sluggish demand and rising output to profit from strong oil prices lifted US inventory significantly last week. The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks dropped -2.8 mmb to 1282 mmb in the week ended February 26....

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on Crude Oil after Strong Rally

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended February 23, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures fell -2 873 contracts to 511 840 for the week. Speculative long position sank -14 214 contracts, while shorts declined -11 341 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...

Crude Oil Rally Continues Despite Surprising Increase in US Inventory

After breaking above US$ 60/bbl, both crude oil benchmarks strengthened further despite surprising stockbuild in the US. The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks slumped -13.81 mmb to 1284.77 mmb in the week ended February 19....

Longer-Term Demand/Supply Outlook Remains Supportive of Copper Strength

Breaching the US9000/tonne benchmark, LME copper price skyrocketed to the highest level since 2011. The recent rally in copper price has been driven by hopes of stronger demand as global economic recovery accelerates and concerns over supply tightness in the metal. While the demand/supply looks positive for the metal...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Platinum Rallied to 6-Year High on Strong Demand Expectations

Precious metals were mixed last week. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended February 16, gold futures’ NET LENGTH slumped -16 438 contracts to 234 969 while silver futures’ NET LENGTH added +281 contracts to 49 824. For PGMs, NET LENGTH of Nymex platinum...

Extreme Weather in the US could Further Dampen Output and Inventory

The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks slumped -15.05 mmb to 1298.58 mmb in the week ended February 12. Crude oil inventory sank -7.26 mmb (consensus: -2.43 mmb) to 461.76 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 3 out...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Platinum Catches Up with Precious Metals’ Rally

Crude oil price strengthened for the second consecutive week but the gain was last than the prior week. We expect to see more profit-taking in the coming weeks. Concerning the precious metal complex, silver retreated after rallying to the 8-year high in the prior week. The rally in precious...