CFTC Commitments of Traders – Soaring market sentiment Increased Bets on Higher Commodity Prices, Except for Gold
With the exception of gold, commodities under our coverage saw net increase in long positions. Optimistic news about coronavirus vaccine lifted market sentiment, raising hopes that global economy could return to normal later next year. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 10, NET...
Rebound in Crude Oil Price to be Short-lived as OPEC+ Cut Can Hardly Balance Market
Crude oil prices jumped amidst more optimistic news above coronavirus vaccine. The market also anticipates OPEC+ to extend the output cut deal until 1Q2021. For the latter, it appears that most OPEC+ producers agree to extend the cut as global oil demand should remain weak for the year ahead....
US Crude Inventory Increased, Curbing Price Rebound
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks plunged -16.8 mmb to 1402.34 mmb in the week ended November 6. Crude oil inventory gained +4.28 mmb (consensus: -0.91 mmb) to 488.71 mmb. Stockpile increased in 2 out...
Gold Got Dumped on Vaccine Hopes and Removal of Election Overhang
Pfizer coronavirus vaccine news has sharply lifted market sentiment. As the positive news raised hopes that the pandemic will soon be under control and global economy will be back on track, gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset, dived. The benchmark Comex contract slumped almost US$100/oz to settle at US$1853.2/oz....
CFTC Commitments of Traders – USD’s Weakness Expected to Lift NET LENGTH in Precious Metals Next Week
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 3, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures plunged -29 360 contracts to 442 460 for the week. Speculative long position declined -20 633 contracts, while shorts gained +8 997 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
US Crude Oil Inventory Surprisingly Slumped
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks plunged -16.8 mmb to 1402.34 mmb in the week ended October 30. Crude oil inventory dived -8 mmb (consensus: +0.89 mmb) to 484.43 mmb. Stockpile increased in 4 out...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Energy Prices Declined as Resurgent Covid Cases Raised Concerns over Demand Outlook
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended October 27, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures declined -18 258 contracts to 472 090 for the week. Speculative long position dropped -4 919 contracts, while shorts soared +13 339 contracts. The front-month WTI crude oil contract...
WTI Crude Oil Price Plunged after US Inventory Increased Much more than Expected
The front-month WTI crude oil contract slumped to the lower in 4 weeks as increase in US inventory almost quadrupled expectations. The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks plunged -16.8 mmb to 1402.34 mmb in the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Precious Metals to Go Higher as US Dollar Sank
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended October 20, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +17 551 contracts to 490 348 for the week. Speculative long position rose +14 764 contracts, while shorts dropped -2 787 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
OPEC+ Meeting Acknowledged Weak Demand Outlook. US Crude Inventory Slipped, while Gasoline Stockpile Gained for First Time in 3 Weeks
The meeting among OPEC+ producers to discuss about revision of output cuts was inconclusive. While a number of OPEC+ producers agreed that weak oil demand outlook might justify more reduction in output, it's yet to know how much more is needed. A greater problem is compliance. As we noted...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets of Lower Gold Price Markedly Increaed
WTI crude oil price fluctuated about US$40/bbl last week. Latest forecasts from major oil agencies suggest that impacts of the pandemic on demand will be long-lasting. This could be a barrier for price to go higher. Bets on gold increased in both directions. However, short positions more than doubled...
US Crude Oil Inventory Declined Further. Distillate Stockpile Dived on Demand Recovery
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks plunged -16.8 mmb to 1402.34 mmb in the week ended October 9. Crude oil inventory fell -3.82 mmb (consensus: -2.84 mmb) to 489.11 mmb. Stockpile gained in 3 out...
OPEC+ Compliance Remains a Lingering Concern over Crude’s Demand/Supply Balance
The near-term outlook on crude oil price has turned sour, as supply is projected to rise despite high uncertainty in the demand outlook. Both crude oil benchmarks fell more than -2%, as Norwegian output resumes after strike, Libya supply is set to increase further and US production facilities restart...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Natural Gas Price to Rise. Demand could Increase as Weather Gets Cooler
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended October 6, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +9 625 contracts to 471 536 for the week. Speculative long position jumped +9 165 contracts, while shorts dropped -460 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Safe Haven Buying in Gold Resumed
Net length in gold futures increased as a rise in speculative long positions was accompanied by a fall in speculative shorts. Traders also resumed accumulating gold on price correction. We expect net length in the yellow metal to rise further in the coming week as safe haven demand reemerged...
US Crude Oil Inventory Fell for Three Straight Weeks, while Cushing Stock Increased
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks dropped -0.57 mmb to 1421.11 mmb in the week ended September 25. Crude oil inventory dropped -1.98 mmb (consensus: +1.57 mmb) to 492.43 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 4 out...
Crude Oil Prices Down in 3 out of 4 Weeks. Outlook Dependent on Pandemic, OPEC+ Compliance and Libya’s Output
Crude oil prices have declined for 3 out of the past 4 weeks. the most recent weakness has been driven by concerns over the demand outlook as a third wave of coronavirus outbreak has hit Europe. This is also a reason for the narrowing in WTI-Brent spread although the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Gold’s NET LENGTH Shrank amidst Worst Price Decline since March
Losing more than -4%, the Comex Gold futures marked its worst week since March amidst US dollar's rebound. The yellow metal's outlook remains bearish in the near-term after the downward breakout after consolation. We expect NET LENGTH to shrink further in the coming week. Crude oil futures recorded increase...
US Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Inventories Fell Across the Board
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks dived -7.48 mmb to 1421.68 mmb in the week ended September 18. Crude oil inventory dropped -1.64 mmb (consensus: +2.33 mmb) to 494.41 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 3 out...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets Increased in Both Side as Crude Oil Price Lacks Direction
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended September 15, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures added +378 contracts to 449 744 for the week. Speculative long position rose +11 868 contracts, while shorts also gained +11 490 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...