WTI Crude Oil Price Plunged after US Inventory Increased Much more than Expected
The front-month WTI crude oil contract slumped to the lower in 4 weeks as increase in US inventory almost quadrupled expectations. The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks plunged -16.8 mmb to 1402.34 mmb in the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Precious Metals to Go Higher as US Dollar Sank
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended October 20, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures jumped +17 551 contracts to 490 348 for the week. Speculative long position rose +14 764 contracts, while shorts dropped -2 787 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
OPEC+ Meeting Acknowledged Weak Demand Outlook. US Crude Inventory Slipped, while Gasoline Stockpile Gained for First Time in 3 Weeks
The meeting among OPEC+ producers to discuss about revision of output cuts was inconclusive. While a number of OPEC+ producers agreed that weak oil demand outlook might justify more reduction in output, it's yet to know how much more is needed. A greater problem is compliance. As we noted...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets of Lower Gold Price Markedly Increaed
WTI crude oil price fluctuated about US$40/bbl last week. Latest forecasts from major oil agencies suggest that impacts of the pandemic on demand will be long-lasting. This could be a barrier for price to go higher. Bets on gold increased in both directions. However, short positions more than doubled...
US Crude Oil Inventory Declined Further. Distillate Stockpile Dived on Demand Recovery
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks plunged -16.8 mmb to 1402.34 mmb in the week ended October 9. Crude oil inventory fell -3.82 mmb (consensus: -2.84 mmb) to 489.11 mmb. Stockpile gained in 3 out...
OPEC+ Compliance Remains a Lingering Concern over Crude’s Demand/Supply Balance
The near-term outlook on crude oil price has turned sour, as supply is projected to rise despite high uncertainty in the demand outlook. Both crude oil benchmarks fell more than -2%, as Norwegian output resumes after strike, Libya supply is set to increase further and US production facilities restart...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Natural Gas Price to Rise. Demand could Increase as Weather Gets Cooler
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended October 6, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +9 625 contracts to 471 536 for the week. Speculative long position jumped +9 165 contracts, while shorts dropped -460 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Safe Haven Buying in Gold Resumed
Net length in gold futures increased as a rise in speculative long positions was accompanied by a fall in speculative shorts. Traders also resumed accumulating gold on price correction. We expect net length in the yellow metal to rise further in the coming week as safe haven demand reemerged...
US Crude Oil Inventory Fell for Three Straight Weeks, while Cushing Stock Increased
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks dropped -0.57 mmb to 1421.11 mmb in the week ended September 25. Crude oil inventory dropped -1.98 mmb (consensus: +1.57 mmb) to 492.43 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 4 out...
Crude Oil Prices Down in 3 out of 4 Weeks. Outlook Dependent on Pandemic, OPEC+ Compliance and Libya’s Output
Crude oil prices have declined for 3 out of the past 4 weeks. the most recent weakness has been driven by concerns over the demand outlook as a third wave of coronavirus outbreak has hit Europe. This is also a reason for the narrowing in WTI-Brent spread although the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Gold’s NET LENGTH Shrank amidst Worst Price Decline since March
Losing more than -4%, the Comex Gold futures marked its worst week since March amidst US dollar's rebound. The yellow metal's outlook remains bearish in the near-term after the downward breakout after consolation. We expect NET LENGTH to shrink further in the coming week. Crude oil futures recorded increase...
US Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Inventories Fell Across the Board
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks dived -7.48 mmb to 1421.68 mmb in the week ended September 18. Crude oil inventory dropped -1.64 mmb (consensus: +2.33 mmb) to 494.41 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 3 out...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets Increased in Both Side as Crude Oil Price Lacks Direction
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended September 15, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures added +378 contracts to 449 744 for the week. Speculative long position rose +11 868 contracts, while shorts also gained +11 490 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Crude Oil Price Rebounded as Production Halted by Hurricane while Inventory Fell
Crude oil price rebounded as hurricane Sally damaged production facilities while US inventory resumed decline last week. The front-month WTI crude oil contract extended gain for second day, rising to a 1.5- week high og US$40.34/bbl before settling at 40.16. The Brent contract also climbed higher. US Bureau of...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH for Crude Oil has Sharpest Decline since May, on Demand Concerns
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended September 8, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures slumped -41 549 contracts to 449 366 for the week. Speculative long position declined -28 235 contracts, but shorts rose +13 314 contracts. Crude oil prices sank over -6%...
Crude Oil Prices Fell as US Inventory Gained for the First in 7 Weeks, While OPEC+ Output Produced More than Quota
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks gained -3.42 mmb to 1124.86 mmb in the week ended September 4. Crude oil inventory gained +2.03 mmb (consensus: -1.34 mmb) to 500.43 mmb. Stockpile rose in 4 out...
Gold Pressured by Better Data, Stronger USD and Yields
Gold price slashed more than 1.8% last week. Reasons for the selloff include better-than-expected US employment report, recovery in US dollar and rebound in Treasury yields. Gold's correction from the peak has lasted for a month with over 6% of loss. More optimistic news about economic recovery and the...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders to Bet Lower Crude Oil Prices on Cloudy Demand Outlook
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended September 1, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures declined further, by -9 784 contracts to, 490 915 for the week. Speculative long position fell -6 429 contracts, but shorts rose +3 355 contracts. NET Length is expected...
WTI-Brent Crude Spread Widened Markedly on US Demand Concerns, Offsetting Inventory Draw
Crude oil prices plunged more than -2% on profit-taking. The front-month WTI contract settled at US$41.51/bbl, lowest since August 7. The front-month Brent contract fell to US$44.43/bbl, lowest since August 21, at close. WTI-Brent spread widened to US$ 2.92/bbl. The correction came in despite sharp draw in US inventory....
CFTC Commitments of Traders – NET LENGTH in Crude Oil and Gold Fell, while that in Natural Gas Climbed Higher
All commodity futures under our coverage were in net speculative long positions last week. NET LENGTH in natural gas futures rose the most as hurricane Laura had raised concerns about supply, outweighing demand worries. NET LENGTH in crude oil futures declined, although price slowly climbed higher. Gold's NET LENGTH...