According to a Reuters poll conducted between August 29 and September 3, chance of disorderly Brexit stood at 25%, unchanged from a month ago. Opinions were divided as nine of the 34 contributors raised the chance, but four lowered the odds. Highest prediction was 60% chance.
Nevertheless, chance of a recession in the year post-Brexit was seen at 15%, down from July’s 20%. Chance for recessions within two year of Brexit was at 25%.
On BoE policies, the poll suggested that the central bank would have a 25bps rate hike soon after March 2019 Brexit date. Then, another 25bps would be added in 2020.
