EUR/USD dipped to 1.0520 last week but recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week work. With 1.0713 minor resistance intact, we’re holding on to our bearish view. That is, corrective rise from 1.0339 has completed at 1.0828 already. Below 1.0520 will target 1.0339 first. Break will extend the larger down trend to parity. However, above 1.0713 will dampen our view and turn focus back to 1.0828 instead.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress and there is no clear sign of completion. We’d expect more downside towards 0.8223 (2000 low) as long as 1.1298 resistance holds.
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