Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7198; (P) 0.7232; (R1) 0.7269; More…
AUD/USD’s sharp fall and break of 0.7180 minor support today suggests that rebound from 0.6722 has completed at 0.7295 already. Intraday bias is turned to the downside for 0.7076 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.7076). Decisive break there should confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% retracement at 0.6941 next. On the upside, break of 0.7295 will extend the rebound. but we’d expect strong resistance from 0.7393 key resistance to limit upside to complete the rebound.
In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.
