January trade data from China showed a better picture. Exports grew 9.1% yoy versus expectation of -3.3% yoy. Import dropped only -1.5% yoy versus expectation of -10.2% yoy. Trade surplus narrowed to USD 39.2B, above expectation of USD 32.0B. However, it should be noted that the trade data for the first two months of the year are generally distorted by Lunar New Year holidays. Thus, while the data are positive, it’s premature to declare that the slow down in China has bottomed. Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that exports to the US since tariff war began were not so much affected. But import from the US plunged, quite notably in Jan by -41%.
In USD terms:
- Total trade rose 4.0% yoy to USD 396B.
- Import dropped -1.5% yoy to USD 178.4B.
- Exports rose 9.1% yoy to USD 217.6B.
- Trade surplus rose to USD 39.2B.
With EU:
- Total trade rose 12.4% yoy to USD 64.5B.
- Import rose 8.2% yoy to 25.9B.
- Export rose 15.3% yoy to USD 38.6B.
- Trade surplus was at USD 12.7B.
With US
- Total trade dropped -13.9% yoy to USD 45.8B.
- Import dropped -41% yoy to USD 9.2B.
- Exports dropped -2.4% yoy to USD 36.5B.
- Trade surplus was at USD 27.3B.
With AU
- Total trade rose 10.8% yoy to USD 14.4B.
- Import rose 7.6% yoy USD 10.1B.
- Export rose 19.1% yoy to USD 4.3B.
- Trade deficit was at USD 5.8B.
