USD/CHF dropped notably last week but failed to sustain below 0.9695 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some consolidations first. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited below 0.9975 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, firm break of 0.9695 will resume the decline from 1.0237 to 0.9587 fibonacci level next.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 0.9186 (2018 low) should have completed at 1.0237 already. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0237 at 0.9587 and below. For now, USD/CHF is seen as in long term range pattern between 0.9186 and 1.0342. Hence, we’d pay attention to bottoming signal below 0.9587. However, sustained break of 1.0014 will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.0237 high.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
