In the update to World Economic Outlook, IMF lowered 2020 global growth forecast by -0.l% to 3.3%, and 2021 by -0.2% to 3.4%. Still, they represent pickup form 2019’s 2.9% growth. IMF also noted that the downward revision “primarily reflects negative surprises to economic activity in a few emerging market economies, notably India”.
Meanwhile, market sentiment has been “boosted by “tentative signs that manufacturing activity and global trade are bottoming out, a broad-based shift toward accommodative monetary policy, intermittent favorable news on US-China trade negotiations, and diminished fears of a no-deal Brexit”. However, “few signs of turning points are yet visible in global macroeconomic data.”
Here are some highlights:
- World output: 2020 at 3.3% (revised down by -0.1%), 2021 at 3.4% (revised down by -0.2%).
- Advanced economies: 2020 at 1.6% (-0.1%), 2021 at 1.6% (unchanged).
- US: 2020 at 2.0% (-0.1%), 2021 at 1.7% (unchanged).
- Eurozone: 2020 at 1.3% (-0.1%), 2021 at 1.4% (unchanged).
- Germany: 2020 at 1.1% (-0.1%), 2021 at 1.4% (unchanged).
- Japan: 2020 at 0.7% (+0.2%), 2021 at 0.5% (unchanged).
- UK: 2020 at 1.4% (unchanged), 2021 at 1.5% (unchanged).
- Canada: 2020 at 1.8% (unchanged), 2021 at 1.8% (unchanged).
- China: 2020 at 6.0% (+0.2%), 2021 at 5.8% (-0.1%).
- India: 2020 at 5.8% (-1.2%), 2021 at 6.5% (-0.9%).
