EUR/JPY edged higher to 125.58 last week but lost momentum after touching 61.8% projection of 114.42 to 124.43 from 119.31 at 125.49. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 123.01 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 125.58 will target 100% projection at 129.32. However, break of 123.01 support will now confirm short term topping. In this case, deeper fall would be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 121.81) to correct the whole rise from 114.42.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) could have completed at 114.42 already. Rise from 114.42 would target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 114.42 at 128.67 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 137.49 (2018 high). This will remain the preferred case for now, as long as 55 day EMA (now at 121.81) holds. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another low below 114.42 at a later stage.
In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 124.54) should confirm the start of another medium term rising leg.
