USD/CAD resumed the decline from 1.4667 and dropped to 1.3233 last week. But as it then staged a quick recovery, initial bias is neutral this week first. Further fall is expected as long as 1.3459 resistance holds. Break of 1.3233 will target long term fibonacci level at 1.3056. However, firm break of 1.3459 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3715 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, the rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) could have completed at 1.4667 after failing 1.4689 (2016 high). Fall from 1.4667 could be the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 and possibly below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.3715 resistance holds. However, sustained break of 1.3715 will turn focus back to 1.4689 key resistance.
In the longer term picture, the bullish case of resuming the up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is delayed. Consolidation from 1.4689 is extending for another medium term fall. As long as 1.2061 support holds, such up trend should still resume through 1.4689 at a later stage.
