AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.7005 resumed last week by taking out 0.7209. The development also suggests that corrective fall from 0.7413 has completed. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 0.7413 resistance first. Break there will resume larger rise form 0.5506 to 0.7635 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 0.7095 support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise near term outlook will stay mildly bearish in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a corrective inside the long term up trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6898) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.
In the longer term picture, bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD is a condition for long term bullish reversal. Yet, AUD/USD struggled to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 0.7311). It’s also limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635. Hence, there is not enough evidence for reversal yet. Down trend from 1.1079 could still extend through 0.5506 at a later stage.
