EUR/GBP gyrated lower last week but is still holding above 0.8537 low. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 0.8537 will resume the decline from 0.9291, and that from 0.9499, towards 0.8276 key support. On the upside, break of 0.8729 resistance will turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound, towards 0.8861 support turned resistance.
In the bigger picture, we’re seeing the price actions from 0.9499 as developing into a corrective pattern. That is, up trend from 0.6935 (2015 low) would resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.8276 support holds. However, firm break of 0.8276 support will suggest that rise from 0.6935 has completed and turn outlook bearish.
In the long term picture, rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is still in progress. It could be resuming long term up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Break of 0.9799 (2008 high) is expected down the road, as long as 0.8276 support holds.
