US Non-Farm Payroll employment is a major focus today. Markets are expecting 675k job growth in June. Unemployment rate is expected to drop from 5.8% to 5.6%. Average hourly earnings are expected to grow 0.4% mom.
Looking at related data, ADP employment showed solid 692k growth in private sector jobs, centered in service-providing companies, across sizes. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped from 428k to 393k. ISM manufacturing employment ticked back into contraction at 49.9. But right now, we don’t have ISM services employment yet, and that’s a key to how NFP would perform. There is prospect of some surprises.
S&P 500 and NASDAQ contained to made successive new record highs this week. But DOW is somewhat lagging behind. Nevertheless, developments are still promising that consolidation from 35091.56 has probably completed at 33271.93 already, after brief breach of medium term channel support.
Solid data in NFP could help lift DOW further towards 35091.56 high this week, setting the stage for an upside breakout in the coming days. That could also push Yen crosses generally higher. In particular, USD/JPY could follow and break through 111/112 key long term resistance zone decisively.
