Sterling dives broadly after BoE rate decision. CPI is now projected to fall back to below 2% target in the medium term, based on conditioned forecasts with interst rate peaking at 4.50% in mid-2023. That is, with Bank Rate at 4.00% after today’s 50bps hike, BoE is now close to the end of the tightening cycle.
GBP/CHF ‘s fall from 1.1433 accelerates lower after the announcement. At this point, such decline is still viewed as the fifith leg of the triangle pattern from 1.1574, Hence, while breach of 1.1094 couldn’t be ruled out, strong support should be seen at 1.1045 cluster (38.2% retracement of 1.0183 to 1.1574 at 1.1043) to contain downside and bring rebound.
However, decisive break of 1.1043/5 will argue that priace actions from 1.1574 are indeed a triple top reversal pattern. Deeper decline would then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.0714 and below.
