EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1274 continued last week and broke through 1.0832 support. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.0609/34 cluster support next. On the upside, break of 1.0929 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 medium term top is seen as a correction to up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609). Strong support could be seen there, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. Yet, medium term outlook will be neutral for now, as long as 1.1274 resistance holds.
In the long term picture, focus stays on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1124). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness. However, sustained break above here will be affirm the case of long term bullish reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.
