Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs has revised down its 2024 economic growth forecast for Switzerland, now expecting a growth of 1.1% instead of previous 1.2%. This revision indicates an expectation of below-average growth for the Swiss economy for a second consecutive year. A key factor influencing this outlook is the expected slow growth in the eurozone in 2024, which is anticipated to impact Swiss exports.
Looking ahead to 2025, SECO forecasts an economic recovery with growth projected at 1.7%, driven by a gradual global economic rebound. On the inflation front, SECO anticipates deceleration from 2.1% in 2023 (revised down from 2.2%) to 1.9% in 2024, followed by a further reduction to 1.1% in 2025.
SECO’s report also underscores several considerable risks to the economic outlook. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses geopolitical risks that could lead to surge in oil prices and, consequently, higher inflation. Additionally, the report warns of possibility of tighter international monetary policy in response to sustained core inflation.
Other highlighted risks include global debt, potential market corrections in real estate and finance, and balance sheet vulnerabilities at financial institutions. Further, economic developments in Germany and China are noted as potential risks for the international economy that could adversely affect Swiss foreign trade.
Energy security remains a concern for Switzerland. Significant energy shortage in Europe, leading to widespread production stoppages and a severe economic downturn, could push Switzerland into a recession coupled with high inflation.
